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Games to the split & premiership survival

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Three weeks before we resume football I thought I’d start this chat. 

With 12 games to the split and - by my reckoning- requiring between 15 & 17 points to avoid the play off spot, can it be done before the split or how much of a squeaky bum time will it be post split? 

Games pre split are

Hibs - H

Dundee - A

Livi - H

StM- A

Hearts -H

Celtic - A

Killie - A

Hamilton - H

Hibs - A

StJ - H

Dons - A

Rangers - H 

personally I believe there are at least 5 winnable games but knowing us I can see us losing games we should win but pick up a couple of surprising points along the way so all in all 12 to 14 points leaving us a couple of points short by the split and squeaky bum time until we crawl over the line. 

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The first 5 games are all winnable but if course it’s never that easy. I’m not convinced we will need 15 points though. With their inferior goal difference St Mirren and Dundee would need to gain 25/27 points if we made 15. That’s Dundee winning 9 games or gaining a high mix of wins and draws,  never going to happen.

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Was talking to mate is a St midden fan today..........he fears the worst.........but is looking at their next winnable game is us in Paisley !!!!!

they have the old firm away with a home game to Hivs in between.....then us......another  wed night midweek game ..then away to sheep and hertz

 

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I can see us picking up 10 or 11 points out of that lot but reckon, with more teams involved at the bottom, there won't be as many points as normally required to be safe. 

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1 hour ago, daver said:

I can see us picking up 10 or 11 points out of that lot but reckon, with more teams involved at the bottom, there won't be as many points as normally required to be safe. 

Agreed 

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On 12/30/2018 at 2:12 PM, Yorkyred said:

The first 5 games are all winnable but if course it’s never that easy. I’m not convinced we will need 15 points though. With their inferior goal difference St Mirren and Dundee would need to gain 25/27 points if we made 15. That’s Dundee winning 9 games or gaining a high mix of wins and draws,  never going to happen.

Historically I think 38 points is the magic number to ensure safety so we probably need at least another 6 wins and we should be ok. That said I don't think we will be involved in the dogfight the bottom 3 are brutal and it will be any 1 from those 3

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I always have 38 points in my mind as our first target. I had a quick look back at the recent final league tables, and since the introduction of the play offs, 38 points has been good enough for tenth or better, although St. Mirren did finish 11th with 41 points the year  before they were introduced. That said, I suspect that at least one of the current bottom three won't reach 30 points this year and 38 points will be more than enough for safety.

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Totally agree with posts above in that we need a fast start after the break. Got a decent run of games which could shape the end to the season. 

It wont go to plan though so will interested to see how it all plays out. 

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