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joewarkfanclub

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Posts posted by joewarkfanclub

  1. 3 hours ago, David said:

    I’m not trying to undersell him. I rate him highly and I think he’s been outstanding for us.

    But I think there are two different arguments being mixed together here.

    One is: how good is Elijah Just?

    The other is: what would a buying club realistically pay Motherwell for him?

    Those are not the same thing in my view.

    On the Ronaldo comparison, I don’t think it works at all. Ronaldo’s Juventus fee came after he had become one of the greatest players of all time, won multiple Champions Leagues, won Ballon d’Ors, and had enormous commercial value. That wasn’t a “finished article” premium in the normal sense. It was an elite global asset changing hands.

    In normal football markets, clubs often pay more for younger players because they are buying future upside. That’s why Lennon Miller’s fee makes sense. Udinese were not paying £4.5m because he was a better player than Just today. They were paying for an 18-year-old Scotland international with resale potential. If Miller develops properly, he could become a £15m–£25m player. That upside is priced into the fee.

    With Just, it’s different. He’s 26. He’s much closer to the finished player. That makes him more reliable, but it also reduces the resale premium in my opinion.

    His career history matters too. Before Motherwell, he had played in Denmark across the first and second tiers, then in the Austrian second tier. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a very good player, but it is part of the evidence a buying club will use. Clubs won’t ignore seven or eight years of career data because of one excellent season and a few World Cup games. That's just a fact.

    I'm not saying that the World Cup doesn't raise his profile though, it absolutely does. Three goals at a World Cup is a brilliant achievement, especially for a Motherwell player. Nobody should dismiss that.

    But context matters there as well. Two came against Iran. The other was a consolation in a 5–1 defeat to Belgium, and New Zealand still went out bottom of the group. That is still impressive, but it is not the same as dominating a knockout tie against France, Brazil or Argentina.

    The Engels and Fernandez comparisons are also a bit of a stretch. Celtic and Rangers sell from a completely different position. They have bigger wages, European exposure, stronger bargaining power, longer control in many cases, and clubs in England are more willing to pay a premium for players coming out of them. Motherwell do not get Celtic or Rangers prices just because the player may be comparable on the pitch. I wish it wasn't the case, but it is.

    I also agree that we should talk our players up. But talking them up doesn’t mean inventing a market that doesn’t exist. I'm trying to look at this from the position of a club who can afford someone like Just, and how they'll see it.

    For me, £4m for Just would not be insulting. It would be a very strong fee for a 26 year old attacking player from a non-Old Firm Scottish club. If we could get £3.5-£4m with serious add-ons and a sell-on clause, that would be very good business.

    Could a Celtic buy him for £4.5m and later sell him for more? Possibly. But that’s exactly the point. Celtic would be able to do that because they can offer Champions League exposure, a bigger platform and a stronger selling market. Motherwell selling directly from Fir Park are operating in a different market.

    So I’m not saying Just isn’t a class act. He is.

    I’m saying “class act” and “£10m player from Motherwell” are two very different things.

    Nobody said he was a £10m player at Motherwell.

    But he is a £4.5m player.

  2. Without all the sponsors on it the shirt wouldnt look too bad. I quite like the white Macron down the sleeves. A hark back to the old Scotland Umbro kits.

    However, the shorts/socks combo doesnt work for me.

    I also prefer claret shorts. But if we are going for white, the socks needed to be claret.

    All that said, Im also not the demographic its aimed at so it will probably go down a storm with the weans!

  3. 28 minutes ago, David said:

    I understand the hype coming off last season and all that, but I think we need to row it back a little as far as expectations go. 

    I think people are putting far too much weight on a couple of World Cup performances and ignoring the bigger picture.

    Just is 26 years old and, prior to arriving here, his career trajectory was hardly that of a player clubs were lining up to spend huge money on.

    He spent years in Denmark moving between the first and second tiers, then had a spell in the Austrian second division, before ending up at what is seen as a mid-table Scottish Premiership club.

    Aye, he had a very good World Cup, but let’s keep perspective. He scored twice against Iran, then got a consolation goal against Belgium in a heavy defeat, and New Zealand still finished bottom of the group and went home early.

    That tournament absolutely raises his profile, but clubs don’t suddenly ignore 7 or 8 years of previous evidence because of three good games.

    The Lennon Miller comparison absolutely does not work for me either. Udinese paid for an 18-year-old with massive upside and potential resale value.

    Just is much closer to the finished article, which usually means lower upside and lower transfer fee, even if he’s arguably the better player today.

    If he was 20 and had just put in those performances, we’d be having a completely different conversation. But he isn't, so we're not.

    Are you saying Just isnt worth £4.5m on todays market?

    I dont want to diminish Lennon Millers impact or legacy at Motherwell FC, but one of the reasons we didnt miss him at all last season was Elijah Just.

    I understand your point about sell on, but at 26 I dont think its outwith the realms of possibility that Just has at least 1 more big move in him if he develops further.

    For example (and Id rather this didnt happen) if Celtic bought him for £4.5m on a 4 year deal and sold him on in 2 years to the EPL after some Champions League level performances, they would easily double their money.

     

  4. 7 hours ago, David said:

    Transfer fees aren’t really based on how highly supporters rate a player. They’re based on what the market is willing to pay, and historically clubs in Scotland outside Celtic and Rangers rarely command £6m fees unless you’re talking truly exceptional circumstances.

    Like a Lennon Miller.

    The World Cup definitely helps exposure, no doubt about it, but one tournament doesn’t automatically double a player’s value overnight.

    I think there’s a difference between saying he’s played at a £6m level and saying a club will actually pay £6m.

    Those aren’t always the same thing.

    Just is currently a better player than Lennon Miller.

    Udinese payed £4.5m for potential.

    Just is the finished article and has showed it on the world stage.

    Im not suggesting we get £10m for him. But we should at least be getting Miller level cash.

    • Like 3
  5. 2 hours ago, Big Stall said:

    SUN is saying we value him at £3m

    I would think thats about right.

    We wont make as much money as other clubs from players because of the wages we pay, but we no longer need to roll over and take the first offer that comes in.

    The remainder of our sellable assets are under contract, so we can extract a little bit more than we would have in the past because we are now on a stable financial footing.

  6. 1 hour ago, 0Neils40yarder said:

    Ive never been a fan of loaning players from clubs in the same league...however, Stephen Welsh was a breath of fresh air in terms of his abilities and his attitude.

    Agreed.

    Last minute loans to fill an identified gap that we werent able to fill with a permanent player is fine, particularly if that player has quality beyond what you can normally afford.

    But this early in the window we should be tying up longer term targets.

  7. 8 hours ago, Mad Dog said:

    Bailey Rice has, rather disappointingly, gone to Killie.

    I would have been fine getting Rice back as our player (albeit financially unlikely) but no interest in bringing him back on loan to develop him for Rangers to benefit from.

    Its not our model. Lets find the next Just, Fadinger, Watt, Maswanhise etc...

  8. 1 hour ago, weeyin said:

    Collins, I think, was slightly too far ahead of his time to make a positive impact on the Scottish footballer mentality at the time.

    Cathro, by all accounts, wasn't a great man manager - although that might just have been people who didn't like his ideas being snarky.

    JBA was obviously a great communicator and man manager, and that is essential when you want to implement new ideas.

    I think Collins clearly had some good ideas due to his experiences with Monaco. I think he lost the dressing room though when he took his shirt off and challenged the squad to work harder so they could look like him! (Paraphrasing).

    I think putting new ideas across can be done. But you need good management skills to take people with you and communicate your message clearly in a way they will take to.

    I guess neither Collins or Cathro had that.

  9. 6 minutes ago, Kmcalpin said:

    He's not coming to us. 

    On a separate note, I get the feeling that there's more to his departure from Celtic Park than meets the eye. 

    I would presume that the reason he has agreed to rip up the last year of his contract is because he has been offered a deal elsewhere on the same or better. Why else would you?

    Clearly they want him off the books to free up a wage, the fact that they dont have to pay up his contract is a bonus for them.

    I love the fact its being painted as a charitable exercise from Celtic though as a thanks for all his years of loyal service!

  10. I dont condone violence, or threats of violence. The opposite in fact.

    However, its quite telling that the SFA have come out and blamed fans and the media for their "employees" feeling under threat.

    You cant present in such an incompetent manner and not expect criticism.

    The fact that a few nutters decide to behave, well, like nutters, doesnt mean we should all shut up.

  11. The contortions Collum finds himself in trying to justify decisions would be hilarious if they werent so serious.

    He knows the rules fine. But the irony is, that by continuing to defend his referees in such a manner, he strips them of any remaining credibility that they have on a monthly basis.

    The public can all see that the Emperor has no clothes. Unfortunately the Emperor has absolutely no idea that he is standing in front of thousands naked.

  12. 2 hours ago, texanwellfan said:

    Ok I didn’t notice capital letters on my first read and was confused. After a few other posts I now understand. 
    Having a Will Still and a Just on our books could throw me for a loop when reading some posts

    Id rather have Will Still than his brother Stan.......

    😉😉😉

    • Haha 2
  13. No chance Falkirk are bigger than us.

    Similar sized club and support. But our history in the top flight and European football edges it in our favour.

    No way McGlynn moves here though. He is onto a sure thing at Falkirk. We cant pay him significantly more to risk that. Neither should we.

    Stick to the plan! 🧡❤️🧡

  14. 1 hour ago, weeyin said:

    By handpicking, I didn't mean not making it available. I meant they can choose to make part of it available - the part that does them less or no damage - and we wouldn't know if anything was missing.

    True.

    But I would have thought a heavily edited audio would be apparent given the circumstances.

    Regardless. Lets hear it and we can decide for ourselves......

  15. 3 hours ago, weeyin said:

    Handpicking what they want to share is not transparency though.

    Precisely my point.

    If its not made available, we should be asking why not.

    I dont really want to dwell on this but you can still demand transparency without the expectation of it, and highlight the lack of it when it occurs.

    Might end up with a sign on our backs again right enough.....

  16. 6 hours ago, weeyin said:

    It won't make much difference regarding what is seen or heard on any VAR show. 

    No action will be taken, no changes made, refs will still favour the OF with big calls and VAR will continue to be a pox on our game.

    Maybe not.

    But in the interests of transparency we should still hear it.

    Even if all it does is annoy us all summer.

    Keeps the boiler stoked for next season and the first shitty decision that comes our way.

  17. 2 hours ago, Kmcalpin said:

    Yes, it'll be interesting. Whether or not it was an actual penalty is now largely irrelevant. What will be be fascinating is how he analyses the process. The referee makes a call, rightly or wrongly. That decision must stand unless there is compelling clear and obvious evidence that he got it wrong. No-one, except diehard Celtic fans and some Hibs fans have seen that.  

    Id love to hear the comms.

    But I suspect we wont, or it would probably have been released by now.

  18. It certainly seems that the board were well aware that Jens was away long before it happened, so I would agree a 3 week process from that point seems reasonable, albeit potential candidates may still be in employment up until the end of the month.

    Would certainly expect an announcement early June so we can get some the recruitment signed off before the players come back on June 19th.

    Be nice to know and be able to relax before I bugger off to the World Cup!

  19. 4 hours ago, David said:

    It'll be interesting to see how Olly Whyte factors in this coming season. With that extension signed and his successful loan period last season, I'd hope to see him get some minutes in our midfield this season. 

    I admit to not seeing much of him, but from what I've heard, he has a lot of qualities that could see him eventually fit into the midfield and how we play. I guess it'll depend on whether he's quite ready to show the consistency and decision-making under pressure that anyone playing in our midfield requires. 

    I'm not sure another loan spell is needed, as there's few teams in the lower leagues that play how we do, so it wouldn't be worth it from that viewpoint. And he's already shown that he's physically capable of competing in senior football. I'd hope he sees time on our bench and gets some game time.

    I would imagine we will have a good look at him in pre season and if he isnt ready then a year at Ayr United wouldnt be a surprise choice.

    Hopefully he is good to go though and can fill one of the midfield berths.

  20. 8 hours ago, Stuwell2 said:

    100%

    We can’t afford to lose Watt & Just, one would be bad enough but both along with Slattery would decimate our midfield.
    Losing one of them would be difficult enough but both is out of the question - I hope. 
    If possible I’d like to keep Watt & Just until the European ties are done at the very least giving us time to bed in any replacements alongside Priestman if need be. 

    Unfortunately, I dont see Just being available for the initial European games, even if we havent sold him. He is going to the World Cup and will need a break after that for a couple weeks at least, which brings you pretty much right up to the date of the first game.

    He is a fit guy and probably wont have lost that much fitness in a short period of time, but Im sure we would want to ease him back into training before he plays a competitve game.

    Hope Im wrong, as he is absolutely essential to what we do.

  21. 18 minutes ago, Spiderpig said:

    Its always better to be seeded and play a lower ranked team, its a cup comprtition so for me progression is the main objective, and not a one off glamour tie.

    Reaching the group stages for Motherwell would be brilliant, so anything that eases our path is welcome.

    Absolutely this ^^^

  22. 7 minutes ago, Spiderpig said:

    If Celtic meet or better the reportted £3 million price tag we have put on Watt, and the player wants to go and accepts the no doubt vastly improved personal terms on offer then he will be away to Celtic, thats how it works.

    Aye, but we dont have to like it!

    😜😜😜

    Hopefully that wont happen though. I dont want any of our guys staying in Scotland when they move on. Im sure they would be much happier in England or abroad!

    😜😜😜

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