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milo

Relegation

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Ye lets hope we get a victory tonight and hopefully the positive vibes will come back. I would be worried if were detached but not much between a lot of the teams.

 

COYW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Is there not about 6 points separating 5th and 11th just now?

 

There is 7 points between 11th and 4th.

 

And 36 points to play for.

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There is 7 points between 11th and 4th.

 

And 36 points to play for.

 

Including tonight we have 39 points to play for.

 

Of the previous 39 points we have taken 15. Which repeated would probably see us in the play off.

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Including tonight we have 39 points to play for.

 

Of the previous 39 points we have taken 15. Which repeated would probably see us in the play off.

I think 41 points (26 +15) would see us safe. Be unlucky to end up in the play off's with that total I think.

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I think 41 points (26 +15) would see us safe. Be unlucky to end up in the play off's with that total I think.

 

We would have needed 42 to miss the play off last season.

 

.

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We would have needed 42 to miss the play off last season.

 

.

Shit!!! Maybe I am getting confused by Claudio Ranieri mentioning 40 points for safety in the EPL.

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Shit!!! Maybe I am getting confused by Claudio Ranieri mentioning 40 points for safety in the EPL.

 

40 does it most years. 9 out of 15 seasons.

 

Record tally for third bottom is 44 points, the only time a team has got more than 42 points.

 

I'm guessing though that due to the compact nature of the league this season this years points total to escape the bottom two spots will be one of the higher ones, perhaps even a record total.

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Although we're only 4 points off 4th, assuming we finish bottom 6 we only have 3 games left against teams in the top half as the table currently stands. Celtic, Aberdeen and Inverness.

 

On that basis, you would like to think 15 or so points from the remaining games would be do-able.

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I'm guessing though that due to the compact nature of the league this season this years points total to escape the bottom two spots will be one of the higher ones, perhaps even a record total.

It does look more likely that the eight teams bunched up will all continue to be inconsistent rather than one or two falling away.

 

It's possible that you could have 8 teams on 30-33 points on Saturday night.

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Although we're only 4 points off 4th, assuming we finish bottom 6 we only have 3 games left against teams in the top half as the table currently stands. Celtic, Aberdeen and Inverness.

 

On that basis, you would like to think 15 or so points from the remaining games would be do-able.

It would be much better to make the top 6 though and know we are safe with the last 5 games to go.

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It would be much better to make the top 6 though and know we are safe with the last 5 games to go.

This is very true and would be the idea scenario. Bit extra cash and no squeaky bums like last season.

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The reason I mentioned the 7 point gap ealier in this thread is that it is nonsense talking about relegation in any form at this stage. All the teams excluding Celtic, Aberdeen and Hearts have been really inconsistent this season and can't get any run of form going. We are in the same boat.

 

All it would take for us to go on say a 3 game winning run and we could then be clear of danger.

 

League and current form of all the teams is far to close to call to make any talk of relegation a certainty.

 

Last nights result is a very good point of that.

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The table at the moment is skewed down to a number of postponements.

 

Partick's games in hand are:

 

Hearts (a) (loss)

St Johnstone (h) (draw)

Dundee Utd (h) (win)

 

ICT

 

Hearts (h) (draw)

St Johnstone (a) (draw)

 

St. Johnstone

 

Partick (a) (draw)

ICT (h) (draw)

 

Dundee

 

Celtic (h) (loss)

 

Partick are averaging just over a point a game so you'd think 4 points from 9. I've indicated in red what the form and league placing suggests plus home advantage. ICT 2 points and St. Johnstone 2 points also. It may help us that they all play each other so draws help our cause.

 

Which if we use 26 games today as a datum the truer reflection of the league table could (helmet on) be:

 

4 Inverness CT 34

5 St Johnstone 34

6 Ross County 33

7 Dundee 33

8 Partick Thistle 32

9 Motherwell 29

10 Hamilton 29

11 Killie 27

 

So to the split, 7 games to gain 4 points for top 6, all it needs is a little momentum as Ross County showed last season.

 

CAVEAT: All is based on conjecture and hope, consider this and count to 10 before you feel the need to poke holes

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I dont think you will be too far off with that G&F.

 

I do think we need to put positions to the side (for now...) because basically any team from 4th to 10th can realistically be dragged into the playoff fight if they lose few on the bounce and another wins a few on the bounce. Post split will be very interesting as I think it will very tight and with team playing each other will come down to the head to heads probably.

 

In summary, lets win all our remaining games pre split. Cheers Motherwell.

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I found this on Twitter.

 

Here's a spread of possible positions following fixtures on 21st Feb

 

CbhI-QIWwAAUCTh.jpg

 

Where was that posted? Quite an interesting way of looking at the league.

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Where was that posted? Quite an interesting way of looking at the league.

I follow this guy on Twitter too. He actually post up some interesting stuff on league table permutations, attendance statistics etc and actually does quite well to deal with all the shite he gets from old firm fans.

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That Twitter chart does box it off really. The majority of teams in the SPFL buy from the same bargain footballer shop and almost all of them have to rebuild at the end of every season, so inconsistency and league position jostling are inevitable.

 

Realistically, there are four teams fighting to avoid 11th. All it takes is any one team to go on a run and they are safe. I believe that given the next five fixtures, we could just be that team. We've had our bad run, and whilst we'll never turn into Barcelona, there is enough in that squad to put us in a comfortable position before the split.

 

Conversely, one team could plummet allowing the rest of the pack to breath easy. But as our 2016 results show, you could be utter dogshit and still be within touching distance due to the inconsistency of others.

 

It'll be interesting to see how Kilmarnock respond to the new gaffer. Clark has a fairly good rep down south and if he hits the ground running, could manage to get them to put a run together.

 

Thistle will manage to limp over the line just as unspectacularly as they have been all season. Which leaves Accies.

 

What can be said about accies without heart ruling head? I think/hope that come season end, they will be in 11th and will get their arses well felt in the play offs!!

 

And then, they can take their joob joob manager, amateur league pitch and pitiful excuse stadium back to where it belongs in the lower leagues.

 

Either way, we have a major rebuilding job to do for next season and with hibs and the Rangers back in amongst it, it'll become even more difficult for us to stay in the top flight.

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