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The Great Rebuild 2017'18


fizoxy
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I've said it before, but whatever the difference is financially to the club of being in the top league v being in the championship is Moults value to us. Quite simply, if we didn't have him with us last season, we wouldn't be playing in the premier league this season.

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But Leeds signed him and then the compensation was worked out afterwords either by negations with both clubs or by a tribunal process such as the PFCC, who then determine the fee based on numerous factors. They essentially offered Erwin a contract with no idea of how much they would have to pay. Sure, they could try and guess at the figure, but counts for little, with the calculations made by tribunals not seeming to follow any real set of rules or guidelines.

 

If memory serves correctly, I'm sure Leeds were not too impressed with eventual fee set.

 

So don't think the fee we received for Erwin offers any real indication as to Moults value to us.

 

 

I think it's worked out by a formula for previous years at the club as a youth rather than a tribunal. So they would know the cost more or less.

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How many defenders do we really need?

Kipré is young and may need taken out of the firing line at some point. Dunne has a chequered past injury wise as has Plummer. McManus and Hammell don't look capable of playing every week. We're actively looking to sell Heneghan. Last week our defensive midfielder ended up playing centre half.

 

I'd say we might need another defender...

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Robinson said in his pre-match presser this morning he thinks he needs one more defender and one more striker.

 

We certainly don't want a repeat of last season when we were forced to play Cadden and McHugh back there.

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I think it's worked out by a formula for previous years at the club as a youth rather than a tribunal. So they would know the cost more or less.

 

It's not the case in UK.

 

They are indeed factors, but it is a tribunal that decide how these are interpreted based on a case by case basis. It's not a formulaic process. In the first instance, clubs are encouraged to negotiate between themselves and if that is not possible, it is passed to the PFCC to determine the figure, but it runs risks.

 

Famously Burnley knocked back an offer of £12m compensation from Liverpool for Danny Ings in 2015 and forced it to tribunal where they ruled the fee to be £6.5m plus add-ons.

 

Explains it better here with a few examples. A very familiar name listed.

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Tom Engish's view on our season from the bbc website

 

'If Motherwell are soft in defence again they'll be in trouble'

 

From the side who scored the fewest goals to the one who, apart from relegated Inverness, conceded the most - Motherwell. If it wasn't for Louis Moult scoring 15 in the league and the now departed Scott McDonald getting nine, Motherwell's awful defensive record could have proven ruinous.

 

They conceded 69 goals, not far off an average of two per game. Motherwell have some new defenders on their books and that's the bottom line of their season. Moult and Chris Cadden should score enough times to give them a chance, but if they're a chronic soft touch in defence again then Motherwell will be in major trouble.

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May well be an unpopular opinion but im just chucking it out there...

 

As much as I love the guy, I think we as Motherwell fans think much more of Louis Moult than anyone outside the club does. I wouldn't be surprised if he's still here after the window, as I don't think any buying club will value him anywhere close to whatever we do.

 

I think his connection and rapport with the fans and the club, makes us significantly over-value him.

I had this very conversation with some charlton fans before the game today and whilst they had all heard of Louis Moult, it is fair to say that he most certainly divided opinion. All agreed that they'd want a striker who averages 15 goals a season but many were concerned by his considered fragility i.e. Groin and perceived lightness of weight.

 

Motherwell are reported to want something in the region of £750k which, in the main, is well out of the reach of all but a couple of league 1 sides. Any team at that level spending that kind of cash will be wanting the proven article and despite what many users of this forum think, the majority of fans (granted not professionals) still consider a 15 goal striker in the spl a bit of a punt.

 

The majority of championship sides could afford the price tag but would Louis want to join the majority of those or more importantly, would they want him? Sorry for sounding like a miserable sod (cos I'm really not) I think if they/he did, he'd be gone by now.

 

The English lower leagues love their big strong target men and their quick runners. Louis is neither of them. It's a different type of game to the spl in so many respects. Quick runner Theo Robinson was a regular and (according to my Southend season ticket holder mate) decent performer whilst Josh Magennis and Tony Watt present the target for fast charlton wingers. Both those teams will be in or around play offs this season and due to the type of player he is, Louis would have to fight to get into the starting 11 of either of those sides.

 

Personally, I think it is that level of club that Louis Moult is likely to end up at where he can hope to push on or get promoted to the championship.

 

Maybe my claret and amber specs are blurring my vision but I would love to see him come to the valley for a fee that Motherwell are happy with and for him to prove all of the doubters wrong but it's reasonable to suggest like Al B has, that not everyone has a pair of claret and amber specs.

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Agreed Weeyin, i just thought it was interesting just how polarised fan opinions are of their own and other players, and of other leagues.

 

I think the other thing that has to be bourne in mind is that the market to which we would aim to sell Moult is a particularly slow one. Again, just looking at league 1, with the very odd exception, almost entirely every signing is an out of contract free. According to transfermkt, so far, only 5 players have been bought for cash, three midfielders, one winger and one centre forward. Some good players have moved for free because there's just not the money flowing around.

 

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/jumplist/transfers/wettbewerb/GB3

 

Perhaps even more concerning for our hopes of achieving top dollar for Louis is the estimated value and trend of sales of that leagues top scorers.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/league-one/top-scorers

 

Of the top 10 scorers in league 1 last season, 5 start this season in the championship with 3 on promotion but most telling, the other 2 (James Vaughan 24 goals and Matty Taylor 16 goals) for fees of £480k and release clause of £300k respectively.

 

So in essence, I think it all boils down to what is Louis Moult worth to us as a football club. It just might make more sense in this market to keep him and let him go for free.

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Agreed Weeyin, i just thought it was interesting just how polarised fan opinions are of their own and other players, and of other leagues.

 

I think the other thing that has to be bourne in mind is that the market to which we would aim to sell Moult is a particularly slow one. Again, just looking at league 1, with the very odd exception, almost entirely every signing is an out of contract free. According to transfermkt, so far, only 5 players have been bought for cash, three midfielders, one winger and one centre forward. Some good players have moved for free because there's just not the money flowing around.

 

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/jumplist/transfers/wettbewerb/GB3

 

Perhaps even more concerning for our hopes of achieving top dollar for Louis is the estimated value and trend of sales of that leagues top scorers.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/league-one/top-scorers

 

Of the top 10 scorers in league 1 last season, 5 start this season in the championship with 3 on promotion but most telling, the other 2 (James Vaughan 24 goals and Matty Taylor 16 goals) for fees of £480k and release clause of £300k respectively.

 

So in essence, I think it all boils down to what is Louis Moult worth to us as a football club. It just might make more sense in this market to keep him and let him go for free.

Very good post. Think it tempers some unrealistic expectations that someone is going to pay £750k + for him. Said it a while back but be very surprised if we get near to £500k for moult. Unfortunately moult and his agent hold all the aces in this case

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If any team that is worried about someone's weight is unable to help that player add weight, they need to fire their fitness team.

 

You're thinking of weight in the wrong sense. In sporting performance terms when people refer to "lightweight", it's a lack of strength, power, muscle stability and balance, rather than being the opposite of muscular weight. It's more down to an individual's physiological make-up than training.

 

An example to put that into real terms that we as Motherwell fans have experience of, would be if you put Louis Moult onto a year-long nutrition and weight plan he'd be bigger, stronger and more muscular, but someone like Henrik Ojamaa would still be harder to knock off the ball.

 

From a physiologial point of view, all the training in the world couldn't have turned Stephen Craigan into Shaun Hutchinson, or Ben Heneghan into Cedric Kipre, or Dom Thomas into Henrik Ojamaa.

 

 

Just to take your point at face-value though, I'd imagine that any side who would be willing to spend 750,000 on Louis Moult, would be capable of spending 1m on someone they didn't have to put 6 months of work into. Again, I absolutely adore the guy, but I'm realistic enough to think that if you take away his passion and his charisma, it doesn't leave as much as we think it does...and it's that, that clubs would be buying. They don't care how he celebrates a goal, and on ability alone I think I could name 5 or 6 better strikers we've had in the last 10 years...none of whom we got that kind of money for.

 

All just opinions obviously, and "internal Vs external value" in itself is an interesting point for discussion. Another example being the positive influence a player can be on other players at the club and the extra 10% his presence brings out of others (Scott McDonald on Lee Erwin for example), which adds massively to their value internally....but can't be included in their external value to a buying club.

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You're thinking of weight in the wrong sense. In sporting performance terms when people refer to "lightweight", it's a lack of strength, power, muscle stability and balance, rather than being the opposite of muscular weight. It's more down to an individual's physiological make-up than training.

 

An example to put that into real terms that we as Motherwell fans have experience of, would be if you put Louis Moult onto a year-long nutrition and weight plan he'd be bigger, stronger and more muscular, but someone like Henrik Ojamaa would still be harder to knock off the ball.

 

From a physiologial point of view, all the training in the world couldn't have turned Stephen Craigan into Shaun Hutchinson, or Ben Heneghan into Cedric Kipre, or Dom Thomas into Henrik Ojamaa.

 

 

Just to take your point at face-value though, I'd imagine that any side who would be willing to spend 750,000 on Louis Moult, would be capable of spending 1m on someone they didn't have to put 6 months of work into. Again, I absolutely adore the guy, but I'm realistic enough to think that if you take away his passion and his charisma, it doesn't leave as much as we think it does...and it's that, that clubs would be buying. They don't care how he celebrates a goal, and on ability alone I think I could name 5 or 6 better strikers we've had in the last 10 years...none of whom we got that kind of money for.

My point exactly....put in a far better way

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I wish Richard Gordon and Willie Miller would stop criticising us on BBC Sportsound for not accepting Aberdeen's bid for Moult. This pair of clowns carping on and on is very tiresome. Moulty is under contract to us and if any club won't meet our valuation then we have every right to reject the bid.

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I wish Richard Gordon and Willie Miller would stop criticising us on BBC Sportsound for not accepting Aberdeen's bid for Moult. This pair of clowns carping on and on is very tiresome. Moulty is under contract to us and if any club won't meet our valuation then we have every right to reject the bid.

Both Aberdeen fans. Also, both pointless twats. The fact that they are given free reign to spout their shite by the BBC is both indicative of the decline in standards of that organisation and just sad.

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