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Run In To Split


Goggles & Flippers
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It's always the team that ends up in the wrong half of the split based on previous years finishing spot, that's hard done by, hence Aberdeen last season and most likely us this season

 

i don't think there's a hard and fast rule on it but I know Killie and Inverness in the past disprove your theory. I don't think they'd want to court controversy by leaving us with less home games than our nearest rivals. They're saving all the controversy for the push to get The Rangers into the top division. Given our away form if we only get two home games we are definitely doomed.

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I'm expecting us to get County, Thistle and Killie at home and be away to Accies and St.Mirren.

 

Looking at the table I see the top and bottom 6 looks finalised now so hopefully fictures out any day now. Not sure how well that fits with others teams requirements for balanced and fair fixtures but if we get those I retain some slim hope of a dramatic rescue provided we have fit the players than can win games for us like Johnson(no pressure son). What I wouldn't give for Hammell to be fit and ready to hit the comeback trail as well.

 

A little miracle from St.Mirren on Monday and I'll truly believe again but saturday will need to be a blip before another strong run.

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can't see us finishing any higher than 11th

 

if we had beat Thistle then I would be thinking differently

 

as for wh we will play in the play off I am sure the powers that be will want sevco back in the top leauge and no matter how well we play against them they well that little bit extra help from the officals (I've see it happen so often in the past)

 

sadly that's the bottom line in scottish football

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It's always the team that ends up in the wrong half of the split based on previous years finishing spot, that's hard done by

Thats my understanding too, Iain. The SPFL will try its best to ensure all clubs play an equal number of home and away fixtures BUT if there is any "clash" then the team in wrong half of the split will lose out. So as I see it 3 home games are not guaranteed.

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i don't think there's a hard and fast rule on it but I know Killie and Inverness in the past disprove your theory. I don't think they'd want to court controversy by leaving us with less home games than our nearest rivals. They're saving all the controversy for the push to get The Rangers into the top division. Given our away form if we only get two home games we are definitely doomed.

being an SPL/SPFL rule for sure its not hard n fast, but its where they start when it happens.

 

it was our club that forced their hand one year, to release the order or selection, effectively if the league plays to form, and the split is as it was the season before, then all will be balanced and horrendously predictable to the point, I can tell you we play stmirren in the week before christmas every season. ( will stop this year due to our league place..or league!)

Think it Was Dempsters first run in with the suits, she choose an initial public outcry for us being shortchanged a home game and the loss in revenue at a critical time, then followed up with a softly softly approach that seen us 'rewarded' the next season (2 glasgow arse cheek games if I recall?)

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We've only ever fallen victim once. We have never been 'rewarded'. We had only 18 home games once and that saw us swap a home game against Celtic ( and all the hospitality and income that came with it). Honestly, if we end up getting shafted then someone needs to be threatening legal action. The obvious choice is to leave Kilmarnock unbalanced.

Rangers and Celtic have never ever had an unbalanced league season. Hmm, I wonder why that is?

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Just to show how tough the task is and how tough the task has been for some time, lets say Motherwell win all five games after the split, our nearest rivals Ross County win 4, Killie or PT win 3 (the other 2) and Hamilton win 1 the table would finish like this

 

Assuming a RC victory this eve and a Killie defeat later in the week:

 

7. Ross County 49

8. Killie or PT 47

9. Hamilton/ Motherwell 46

10. Hamilton/ Motherwell 46

11. Killie/ PT 44

12. St Mirren 21

 

This would mean safety by 2 points having lost only 2 of the last 12 games and winning 8 of them. It would be unlikely to happen this way but it shows that even with 5 victories it could be very tight indeed,

 

I suppose what this shows more than anything else is that the damage was done some time ago. I think that a St Mirren victory this eve is realistically the best half chance we have.

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There's not a chance in hell we're winning the last 5 games.

 

Saturday was the last chance to give ourselves a fighting chance and we bottled it. The damage was done at earlier points in the season, although we might have been ok if Partick and Ross County hadn't picked up so many points recently.

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Just to show how tough the task is and how tough the task has been for some time, lets say Motherwell win all five games after the split, our nearest rivals Ross County win 4, Killie or PT win 3 (the other 2) and Hamilton win 1 the table would finish like this

 

Assuming a RC victory this eve and a Killie defeat later in the week:

 

7. Ross County 49

8. Killie or PT 47

9. Hamilton/ Motherwell 46

10. Hamilton/ Motherwell 46

11. Killie/ PT 44

12. St Mirren 21

 

This would mean safety by 2 points having lost only 2 of the last 12 games and winning 8 of them. It would be unlikely to happen this way but it shows that even with 5 victories it could be very tight indeed,

 

I suppose what this shows more than anything else is that the damage was done some time ago. I think that a St Mirren victory this eve is realistically the best half chance we have.

This also assumes that Killie beat say Hamilton, St Mirren and either Ross County or Partick - a tall order for them. A lot will depend on the post split fixtures and whether we get 3 home or 3 away games. Theres a "reasonable" chance we might have to travel to Firhill again because as things stand Partick would face 4 away games and that won't happen.

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Theres a "reasonable" chance we might have to travel to Firhill again because as things stand Partick would face 4 away games and that won't happen.

 

If St Mirren lose tonight then I think they'd just send them to Firhill again as their season would be all but over. The major question is the play off place between us and Ross County and I don't think they'll give one team the advantage of more home games than the other. But this is the SPFL!

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Why are use nutters thinking about catching accies when we could be 6 behind ross county after tonight,would catching them not be a priority?

 

 

Priority and probability are two different things here.

 

Ross County -3 points ahead with a game in hand against shite. 22 points taken from the last 24.

Accies - 12 points head. 4 points taken from the last 39.

 

On the balance of probability, I'd say we look closer to overtaking Accies than County.

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What makes everone think we will win our last 5 games?

 

Why are use nutters thinking about catching accies when we could be 6 behind ross county after tonight,would catching them not be a priority?

I don't think anybody really does think we can win 5. It was just an illustration to show how difficult it would be even if we did win all 5. What we need is for Ross County's run to come to an end tonight and for them to have a howler after the split. The most likely option by some considerable way now is that we will finish 11th.

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Im no maths genius but even if we win our last 5 games we could still be 2nd bottom..Is that correct? Now with County 6 points clear. :suicide:

 

I think the answer to that is no. If we win 5 then the best anybody else can do is win 4. If RC win 4 then the best anyone else can do is win 3. If that is one of Killie or PT we can catch the other as they could only win two making 6 points available. Given that they are 7 ahead just now we could beat either team by 2 points, (this is assuming Celtic beat Killie before the split).

 

If Killie do beat Celtic there may be a scenario where we cannot finish better than 11th if Thistle win 3 games.

 

If Accies or St Mirren pick up any points against the other teams it would help our case further.

 

Ofcourse if we win 5 and RC only win 3 then we could beat them on GD although that is looking difficult at the moment. There may permutations that I have not thought of but I think that 5 wins wld be enough, just!!!

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If we win 5 games and are still in a playoff then to be fair, we deserve to be there, that's how a league system works.

 

If County win 3 and draw 1 and lose to us then we'd still finish behind them.

 

I think the issue for our dressing room is that every game now is squeeky bum time and to have calmness that we'll deliver a victory. Not ideal if we're all square going into the last 15 minutes. All opposition teams know that we have to push on for 3 points to will no doubt look to exploit us on counter attacks, or just park the bus. We've shown consistently over the past few years we have no answer to that (Albion Rovers, Aberdeen League Cup and Killie recently at FP).

 

Ross County, 16 bloody points from 18, Did ye? Aye?

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We're in the play offs. It's that simple so the club, management and players have to start preparing for not only that but life in the championship and hopefully a quick return.

Aw fuck off please. Get behind them instead of that pedantic pish you're spouting.

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We're in the play offs. It's that simple so the club, management and players have to start preparing for not only that but life in the championship and hopefully a quick return.

I wondered what happened to MJC. Do you get any enjoyment out of the club at all?

 

If we are preparing for the Championship now, you are going to get Championship level performances. When we had to win our last 3 games last season, we pulled it off.

 

We need the same attitude now. Not this defeatest crap.

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