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Partick Thistle V Motherwell 11/04/15 - Huge Away Crowd Expected


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We're 14/5 at the bookies.

 

Well overpriced and worth a treble with a couple of bankers.

 

With our away record? With our record at Firhill (70% loss/draw from last 10)? With Partick's recent form?

 

We are shorter odds away from home than Dundee who have lost 1 match since the New Year.

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While it would be fantastic to win this, I'm more concerned at the moment that we don't lose. 4 points difference going into the split is possible, Thistle will see this as a chance to make it a 7 point gap which will be very difficult to overcome, particularly with goal difference.

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While it would be fantastic to win this, I'm more concerned at the moment that we don't lose. 4 points difference going into the split is possible, Thistle will see this as a chance to make it a 7 point gap which will be very difficult to overcome, particularly with goal difference.

 

If we lose and Ross County win they go 6 points ahead with a superior goal difference (although it might be over turned in the final matches).

 

Partick's goal difference is out the park so they effectively have an extra point, and would therefore go 8 points clear in the above scenario.

 

That mean's we'd have to beat Ross County at Fir Park and then gain 4 points over them over the remaining 4 fixtures, which is a big ask; not impossible but it really would be a great escape.

 

Basically we have to match Ross County's result tomorrow, if they win, we have to win, if they draw we can drop 2 points, etc.

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Assuming a worse case scenario tomorrow that Partick beat us, Ross County beat St. Mirren.

 

Motherwell 31pts; Ross County 37 pts (+ GD)

 

POST SPLIT

 

Assuming we beat Ross County

 

Motherwell W5 D0 L0 Ross County W2 D2 L1 (15/8 = 7 point gain)

Motherwell W4 D1 L0 Ross County W2 D0 L3 (13/6 = 7 point gain)

Motherwell W4 D0 L1 Ross County W1 D2 L2 (12/5 = 7 point gain)

Motherwell W3 D2 L0 Ross County W1 D1 L3 (11/4 = 7 point gain)

 

So 3 wins out of 5 saves Ross County, no matter what we do.

 

If we drop any points at all we need Ross County to either win only 1 game post split or lose at least 3. If we lose any match, Ross County can't win more than 1 for us to over take them on points.

 

There are other possibilities that go to goal difference which would probably be very, very tight unless we got since big wins.

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This is definitely a decisive weekend, Partick could pull away and make it between us and RC or RC could pull away too and leave us looking at a playoff.Personally I think us and County will both win drawing both Partick and Killie into it.Those 2 are on the way down and it's hard to turn it around in that situation, just look at Hibs last season.If we win tomorrow then I reckon Partick will be in the playoff, if we lose it'll probably be us so I think it's safe to say this could turn out to be the most important game of the season.

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I'm afraid I can see us losing this one and Ross County winning at a canter on Monday.

 

As soon as McCall took over at Sevco I knew we were destined to meet them (and lose) in the play offs.

 

Hope I'm wrong, and I have been before, but we need to win every game AND hope others slip up and I just can't see that happening.

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With our away record? With our record at Firhill (70% loss/draw from last 10)? With Partick's recent form?

 

We are shorter odds away from home than Dundee who have lost 1 match since the New Year.

Our record isn't relevant when we have so many new players half of whom would struggle to find Firhill and even at that you are going back to the 90s for that last 10 surely.

 

We've got more quality than Partick now and even though it's a tough game we're not a long shot.

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I think we're in with a chance of picking up a result but I don't understand where the patter about Partick being on a downward slope comes from, they've had a tougher run in recently than we have and have still been picking up points. I thought they were very decent against Celtic, i'm hoping we don't see Higginbotham coming in wide right for the suspended Craigen because he'll tear Straker a new one and he seems to save his best performances for Motherwell.

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We're back to this old, stats can prove any point, theory.
I prefer these ones from SPLStats on Twitter

Partick Thistle have won their last 2 league matches at Firhill - they haven't won 3+ in a row in the top flight since Nov-Dec 2002.

Motherwell have won 6 of their last 7 matches against Partick Thistle - the only exception was a 3-1 defeat on their last visit to Firhill.

 

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Very nervey. I do make us slight favourites, simply because of the form and confidence of our front four. At the same time I very much doubt we'll avoid conceding.

 

I don't give St Mirren a cat's chance.

 

The point above about Higginbotham v Straker is frightening, almost certain both will play.

 

Massively looking forward to the big away crowd, especially as we'll be side on.

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Sometimes opponents have good players. Would be pretty boring league otherwise.

 

Higginbotham needs to be stopped in the midfield.

 

They have Ainsworth, Johnson, Big Lee, Skippy to worry about. And when they have tried to deal with them, Dom Thomas and Sutton will be rolled out.

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Our record isn't relevant when we have so many new players half of whom would struggle to find Firhill and even at that you are going back to the 90s for that last 10 surely.

 

We've got more quality than Partick now and even though it's a tough game we're not a long shot.

 

Just over 3/1 is not exactly long shot odds when you have the worst away record in the league.

 

The good thing is if we do win, it puts a bit of pressure on Ross County since they are playing on Monday, they'll know they have to get a result and that will definitely be on their minds more than it would have been if they were just concentrating on a Saturday fixture.

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Sometimes opponents have good players. Would be pretty boring league otherwise.

 

Higginbotham needs to be stopped in the midfield.

 

They have Ainsworth, Johnson, Big Lee, Skippy to worry about. And when they have tried to deal with them, Dom Thomas and Sutton will be rolled out.

 

Higginbotham has been poor this season, although he remains a potential danger but he's not been in the form he was last season.

 

Here's one I know you'll enjoy Weeyin. Steven Lawless has the joint top assist record in the Scottish Premiership this season with 8. The others are Marley Watkins, Greig Stewart and our very own Lionel Ainsworth.

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I'm afraid I can see us losing this one and Ross County winning at a canter on Monday.

 

As soon as McCall took over at Sevco I knew we were destined to meet them (and lose) in the play offs.

 

Hope I'm wrong, and I have been before, but we need to win every game AND hope others slip up and I just can't see that happening.

 

For once I can understand your pessimism as if we lose and County win 6 and 7 point gaps to County and Thistle will be all but insurmountable. From there it is hard to imagine us finishing outside the play off place.

 

If we do win though I think we'll win get the job done, we should face County and Thistle at home after the split which could be a vital advantage. They'll also need to play each other and whilst games for all 3 of us against Accies, Killie and St. Mirren all look very winnable wherever they are played there is a liklihood of dropped points in one or more of those games for all teams and Thistle for me if we win will be the more vulnerable getting sucked into this dog fight right at the death. Winning on Saturday would also put a bit of pressure onto County who whilst still massive favourites to win at St.Mirren might just tighten up a little and give us an unexpected favour. County's current run is absolutely incredible, unbeaten in 8 and winning 7, but I can't see them taking that to 13 wins in 14. There will be a loss or two in there, lets make sure one of them is to us and make sure it counts.

 

Pressure on us to win and certainly not lose this week is immense, Barraclough will be a borderline genious if he gets the players to continue to play with the freedom of last few games and gets this win.

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Higginbotham has been poor this season, although he remains a potential danger but he's not been in the form he was last season.

 

Here's one I know you'll enjoy Weeyin. Steven Lawless has the joint top assist record in the Scottish Premiership this season with 8. The others are Marley Watkins, Greig Stewart and our very own Lionel Ainsworth.

 

8? That sounds surprisingly low.

 

I'll stick with Johnson for now, though.

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Yeah, Johnson out and Pearson touch and go is not great news. Wonder if Dom will be trusted with a start.

 

Partick Thistle are decent to watch on their day and are on a good run. Speaking to a couple of their fans though, they seem to have the fear about this game. All we can ask for is that we go at them full pelt and see what happens. A draw wouldn't be a disaster imo.

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