That Old Chestnut - Do We Move Or Do We Stay

[Goggles & Flippers]

30 minutes ago, 0Neils40yarder said:

You've lost me in any vote by advocating for the Old Firm to be given 10,000 tickets at our new home...call that cutting off my nose to spite my face, or being completely parochial but as a business plan, I wouldnt be able to buy into that at all.

I completely agree that this issue is far too big for the society (and therefore owners) not to have any sort of say in it, or at least see the details. 

If someone could convince me that a new stadium wouldn't be a white elephant, and/or a noise around our necks then I may soften

initially yes, but the hope is our home gate increases steadily and their share is diminished to make way for the good guys, nothing would be as satisfying in 2040 as saying sorry, you're down to 6,000 this season because 12,000 Dossers have bought season tickets .....

It's all about how you frame it I suppose. I'm happy to get the OF fans to fund a nice shiny state of the art ground because the club they follow are happy to vacuum up our academy kids and divert funds away from locals who buy into the religious and glory hunting stuff.

I'm suggesting 18,000 seats available, not 10,000 to the OF but initially they would possibly take it. Unless, from the first season we're in it, we get the 8,000 that we had for HJK or Freiburg as our datum, add on 2,000 because of the novelty of a new stadium then the maximum we can offer OF is 8,000 tickets.

 

In addition to point one in the earlier post:

1. We maintain our current playing budget and in theory that is ring fenced purely for football operations (unlike some clubs that really have to cut their cloth to fund a stadium).

I'd also suggest 30% of all transfer profits to be made available to pay off the loan earlier. Important to stress profits and not income as that takes into account what they arrived for and agents fees. While we will not realise what we did this past summer every year, if you take ballpark £15m from the last two windows with minimal spent for Eli and Lennon, Watt and Ward (£5m would be available).

The last two summers were definitely a high water mark and an outlier (for now). The income received does allow us to have this conversation. If we use a handover of 2030 between then and 2050, even if you were fiscally conservative, would it be fair to apportion an average transfer profit of £1m per annum (£20m over 20 years) and another £300k for the pot (£6m over 20 years).

The club would still have the lion's share (70%) for reinvestment in players and academy.

[joewarkfanclub]

A lot of this makes absolute sense to me. 

Ambitious? Yes.

But achievable? Certainly.

I agree about the OF tickets though. We should always maintain majority share in our own stadium. Especially a brand new shiny one like we are proposing.

Giving them 8k in an 18k stadium is fine for me. We just need to do everything we can to ensure we sell out our end.

It would be quite something if we could grow our support to that level. In years gone past I would have said unachievable, however, we are currently at maximum portential in our current set up, so its not inconceivable.

[0Neils40yarder]

4 minutes ago, joewarkfanclub said:

A lot of this makes absolute sense to me. 

Ambitious? Yes.

But achievable? Certainly.

I agree about the OF tickets though. We should always maintain majority share in our own stadium. Especially a brand new shiny one like we are proposing.

Giving them 8k in an 18k stadium is fine for me. We just need to do everything we can to ensure we sell out our end.

It would be quite something if we could grow our support to that level. In years gone past I would have said unachievable, however, we are currently at maximum portential in our current set up, so its not inconceivable.

I honestly think it is inconceivable...we had great crowds for the European games, we get great crowds for cup finals, we have seen our crowds in general go up during this crest of a wave we are currently on, but lets not kid ourselves that we are going to see 8000 motherwell fans, let alone 10 or 12k for normal league games on a regular basis.

What goggles says is in theory a possibility, however i remain unconvinced that its anything more than pie in the sky. 

He might be correct in saying that moving is the best option, but I don't like the idea of asking the OF to fund it nor do I believe that our crowds will double at any new stadium.

[joewarkfanclub]

1 minute ago, 0Neils40yarder said:

I honestly think it is inconceivable...we had great crowds for the European games, we get great crowds for cup finals, we have seen our crowds in general go up during this crest of a wave we are currently on, but lets not kid ourselves that we are going to see 8000 motherwell fans, let alone 10 or 12k for normal league games on a regular basis.

What goggles says is in theory a possibility, however i remain unconvinced that its anything more than pie in the sky. 

He might be correct in saying that moving is the best option, but I don't like the idea of asking the OF to fund it nor do I believe that our crowds will double at any new stadium.

We had regularly over 7,500 home fans in the second half of last season. So the point about the home end stands. Its currently at capacity most weeks with queues for toilets and food kiosks ridiculously long.

We need/deserve better facilities. Whether thats a refurb or a relocation.

Wouldnt you even like to hear what a proposal to relocate would look like, sound like and what the numbers would be before making a decision?

I am by no means all in on a new stadium, but Id sure as hell like to have a look at it before deciding Fir Park is still the best option.

[Goggles & Flippers]

9 minutes ago, 0Neils40yarder said:

He might be correct in saying that moving is the best option, but I don't like the idea of asking the OF to fund it nor do I believe that our crowds will double at any new stadium.

I'm not asking them to fund it, I'm suggesting that making 18,000 seats available gives us the opportunity to help fund it for a relatively modest increase in cost (well 40% more concrete and seats) compared with simply replicating the 13,000 we currently have.

The fact that they have 53,000 and 62,000 capacity stadiums which are often full suggests there is at least scope to get 18,000 seats sold. Over 20 years, that represents at least £10m in additional revenue. If I'm being asked how we pay for it, I'm simply pointing to the most straightforward and sustainable wealth generator available to a football club: arses on seats.

And this is really where I think we're talking past each other. Your position seems to have evolved from preferring a revamped POD, to concerns that Ravenscraig would be a white elephant, to the potential issue of being outnumbered or out-contributed by OF fans, and now to whether we'll ever sustain a 10k to 12k home support. Or maybe its all of them combined.

I'm happy to debate any of those points, but it can sometimes feel that whenever I put forward something to address one concern, the discussion simply moves on to another. I'm not saying those concerns aren't valid, just that I'd like us to properly weigh up the potential benefits alongside the risks rather than assuming the risks are necessarily decisive.

[0Neils40yarder]

10 minutes ago, joewarkfanclub said:

We had regularly over 7,500 home fans in the second half of last season. So the point about the home end stands. Its currently at capacity most weeks with queues for toilets and food kiosks ridiculously long.

We need/deserve better facilities. Whether thats a refurb or a relocation.

Wouldnt you even like to hear what a proposal to relocate would look like, sound like and what the numbers would be before making a decision?

I am by no means all in on a new stadium, but Id sure as hell like to have a look at it before deciding Fir Park is still the best option.

There were tonnes of seats available in all 3 home stands in our last home match against Dundee United.

 

If someone can convince me that its affordable, without giving masses of the stadium to weegies, isnt going to absolutely hamstring us with a massive mortgage and isn't going to be a Bill Barr effort then I'd listen. 

[0Neils40yarder]

1 minute ago, Goggles & Flippers said:

I'm not asking them to fund it, I'm suggesting that making 18,000 seats available gives us the opportunity to help fund it for a relatively modest increase in cost (well 40% more concrete and seats) compared with simply replicating the 13,000 we currently have.

The fact that they have 53,000 and 62,000 capacity stadiums which are often full suggests there is at least scope to get 18,000 seats sold. Over 20 years, that represents at least £10m in additional revenue. If I'm being asked how we pay for it, I'm simply pointing to the most straightforward and sustainable wealth generator available to a football club: arses on seats.

And this is really where I think we're talking past each other. Your position seems to have evolved from preferring a revamped POD, to concerns that Ravenscraig would be a white elephant, to the potential issue of being outnumbered or out-contributed by OF fans, and now to whether we'll ever sustain a 10k to 12k home support. Or maybe its all of them combined.

I'm happy to debate any of those points, but it can sometimes feel that whenever I put forward something to address one concern, the discussion simply moves on to another. I'm not saying those concerns aren't valid, just that I'd like us to properly weigh up the potential benefits alongside the risks rather than assuming the risks are necessarily decisive.

Id prefer to stay where we are for sentimental reasons but also because I dont want the club saddled with lots and lots of debt which may see it come a cropper if a rainy day comes. I feel that a rebuilt Main Stand is within our means but a complete new build is not...unless its an absolute shiter of an effort like Paisley.

You've set out your reasoning in a very considered and structured way, however i dont believe we will get to the stage of having the amount of home fans You've suggested, and ive absolutely no interest in supporting the option of having even more marauding Old Firm fans at our games than we already do. If there is a business plan (or some maddy willing to fund it for us) out there that proves palatable, and the club would benefit from it then Id change my stance, Ive no doubt.

[Goggles & Flippers]

1 minute ago, 0Neils40yarder said:

isn't going to be a Bill Barr effort

Why would Kryk and the rest be employing analytics and scouring Europe for the most progressive young managers that no only compete at the business end of the table, entertain and get folk through the door to then turn round and say, you know what we need? SMiSA 2.0!

There's been enough learned from stadium design as much from mistakes made to best practice to know what helps build atmosphere and bring in crowds rather than keep them away. Seat pitch and rake, acoustics, facilities, etc. wouldn't be ignored, because it's not what we seem to be doing*.

*Granted I've written extensively that the WS rank and file have been willfully ignored .... but you get what I mean.

[Goggles & Flippers]

1 minute ago, 0Neils40yarder said:

Id prefer to stay where we are for sentimental reasons but also because I dont want the club saddled with lots and lots of debt which may see it come a cropper if a rainy day comes. I feel that a rebuilt Main Stand is within our means but a complete new build is not...unless its an absolute shiter of an effort like Paisley.

You've set out your reasoning in a very considered and structured way, however i dont believe we will get to the stage of having the amount of home fans You've suggested, and ive absolutely no interest in supporting the option of having even more marauding Old Firm fans at our games than we already do. If there is a business plan (or some maddy willing to fund it for us) out there that proves palatable, and the club would benefit from it then Id change my stance, Ive no doubt.

So you would move but you need a number and funds in the bank to match that number.

Fair enough.

[0Neils40yarder]

1 minute ago, Goggles & Flippers said:

Why would Kryk and the rest be employing analytics and scouring Europe for the most progressive young managers that no only compete at the business end of the table, entertain and get folk through the door to then turn round and say, you know what we need? SMiSA 2.0!

There's been enough learned from stadium design as much from mistakes made to best practice to know what helps build atmosphere and bring in crowds rather than keep them away. Seat pitch and rake, acoustics, facilities, etc. wouldn't be ignored, because it's not what we seem to be doing*.

*Granted I've written extensively that the WS rank and file have been willfully ignored .... but you get what I mean.

Because its the cheap option that wouldn't saddle us with a load of debt 🤷‍♂️

[joewarkfanclub]

6 minutes ago, 0Neils40yarder said:

There were tonnes of seats available in all 3 home stands in our last home match against Dundee United.

 

If someone can convince me that its affordable, without giving masses of the stadium to weegies, isnt going to absolutely hamstring us with a massive mortgage and isn't going to be a Bill Barr effort then I'd listen. 

Our last home game?

The one that happened midweek after 6 weeks of playing Thurs/Sunday and large numbers of our fans outlaying on travel to European games?

Any chance those would be factors on the crowd being down?

If you choose to think that a better option isnt possible, then there is nothing that can be done to persuade you.

However, if the club put forward such an option for consideration, say, in the form of a response to a feasibility study, then maybe that would be harder to ignore?

[0Neils40yarder]

1 minute ago, Goggles & Flippers said:

So you would move but you need a number and funds in the bank to match that number.

Fair enough.

Aye essentially Im not dead set against it, but would rather stay put unless I was completely convinced we could afford it and it was in the clubs best interests.

In much the same way, as I was in the 'get them punted' camp, with our main playing assets as I seen it as being in the clubs best interests, to get the best value they could after a great season. 

[0Neils40yarder]

1 minute ago, joewarkfanclub said:

Our last home game?

The one that happened midweek after 6 weeks of playing Thurs/Sunday and large numbers of our fans outlaying on travel to European games?

Any chance those would be factors on the crowd being down?

If you choose to think that a better option isnt possible, then there is nothing that can be done to persuade you.

However, if the club put forward such an option for consideration, say, in the form of a response to a feasibility study, then maybe that would be harder to ignore?

Of course its a factor, just like winter will be a factor, fitba on the TV is a factor etc etc...our crowds fluctuate its as simple as that and I think we'd be mental to rely on bigger crowds at any new build.

Ive already said on a couple of occasions that the club should be sharing their findings with the rank and file...Ive also stated that if I can be convinced that the numbers stack up via a proper business plan then I'd be open to changing my stance.

[Goggles & Flippers]

8 minutes ago, 0Neils40yarder said:

Of course its a factor, just like winter will be a factor, fitba on the TV is a factor etc etc...our crowds fluctuate its as simple as that and I think we'd be mental to rely on bigger crowds at any new build.

Ive already said on a couple of occasions that the club should be sharing their findings with the rank and file...Ive also stated that if I can be convinced that the numbers stack up via a proper business plan then I'd be open to changing my stance.

Unfortunately as has been discussed we've moved beyond the debate stage. Dalziel Park being green lit leans heavily into your wish.

I have no idea if £8m is correct or fair for a POD demolishing and rebuild. But for that we have a major inconvenience for at last one season, loss of income and 3/4 of the way along the touchline.

£8m in a £30m development is a stand and half. And most importantly, plenty of room. Our premium POD offering just now is 91 Lounge 20m x 7m give or take. offfffttttt.

[0Neils40yarder]

5 minutes ago, Goggles & Flippers said:

Unfortunately as has been discussed we've moved beyond the debate stage. Dalziel Park being green lit leans heavily into your wish.

I have no idea if £8m is correct or fair for a POD demolishing and rebuild. But for that we have a major inconvenience for at last one season, loss of income and 3/4 of the way along the touchline.

£8m in a £30m development is a stand and half. And most importantly, plenty of room. Our premium POD offering just now is 91 Lounge 20m x 7m give or take. offfffttttt.

The silence on it all is deafening to be fair

[joewarkfanclub]

28 minutes ago, 0Neils40yarder said:

Of course its a factor, just like winter will be a factor, fitba on the TV is a factor etc etc...our crowds fluctuate its as simple as that and I think we'd be mental to rely on bigger crowds at any new build.

Ive already said on a couple of occasions that the club should be sharing their findings with the rank and file...Ive also stated that if I can be convinced that the numbers stack up via a proper business plan then I'd be open to changing my stance.

I dont think we are miles apart.