Ya Bezzer! Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 As it stands we have a 4 point advantage, or more, over all 4 teams below us. Even if we lost every match in the bottom 6, Kilmarnock and Ross County would need 4 points at least (goal difference is too close to really mean much right now so I'm not even taking that into consideration), Dundee would need 5 and St Johnstone would need 10. In the last 5 matches those clubs have taken the following Kilmarnock - 4 pts Dundee - 7 pts Ross County - 3 pts St Johnstone - 5 pts. So the worst possible scenario of us getting 0 points and using the others recent forms as an indicator, we still stay up. Even getting 1 draw makes it unlikely we finish lower than 9th. No team in the Bottom 6 has more than 1 win in their last 5 matches apart from Dundee. The chances of three teams leaping over us seems very unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiderpig Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 14 minutes ago, Ya Bezzer! said: As it stands we have a 4 point advantage, or more, over all 4 teams below us. Even if we lost every match in the bottom 6, Kilmarnock and Ross County would need 4 points at least (goal difference is too close to really mean much right now so I'm not even taking that into consideration), Dundee would need 5 and St Johnstone would need 10. In the last 5 matches those clubs have taken the following Kilmarnock - 4 pts Dundee - 7 pts Ross County - 3 pts St Johnstone - 5 pts. So the worst possible scenario of us getting 0 points and using the others recent forms as an indicator, we still stay up. Even getting 1 draw makes it unlikely we finish lower than 9th. No team in the Bottom 6 has more than 1 win in their last 5 matches apart from Dundee. The chances of three teams leaping over us seems very unlikely. I agree, the chances of us finishing lower than 10th are very slim, but you do realise your positivity will never catch on dont you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ya Bezzer! Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 24 minutes ago, Spiderpig said: I agree, the chances of us finishing lower than 10th are very slim, but you do realise your positivity will never catch on dont you. Well I am entertaining the possibility that we lose all 5 games so it's a weird kind of positivity. 🤣 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Grew Posted April 15 Author Report Share Posted April 15 It’s time splitting the league in half at this stage of the season was scrapped. It’s utter nonsense, and in my opinion achieves nothing and always ends up with some clubs having an imbalance in their home and away fixtures. In my view, a 12-team league doesn’t work. When it first came in, clubs played each other 4 times leading to a 44 game season. It became obvious this wasn’t tenable and that a compromise was needed. Enter the split, which reduced the season to 38 games. While fiddling with the size of the league is undesirable and a pain, something needs to be done. As I understand it there a few options under consideration, including: Option 1: Reduce league to 10 clubs, playing each other 4 times - a 36 game season. Tried and failed as relegation dropped 1 / 2 clubs out at the end of the season - attrition rate of 10%/25% undesirable. Option 2: Increase league to 14 clubs, playing each other 4 times - 42 game season. As bad as the original 12-club league with 44 game season and clubs won’t accept it. Option 3: Increase league to 16 clubs, playing each other 2 times - 30 game season. Personally, I favour Option 3 which I think has a number of good points which I won’t go into here but what do others think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennyc Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 20 minutes ago, El Grew said: It’s time splitting the league in half at this stage of the season was scrapped. It’s utter nonsense, and in my opinion achieves nothing and always ends up with some clubs having an imbalance in their home and away fixtures. In my view, a 12-team league doesn’t work. When it first came in, clubs played each other 4 times leading to a 44 game season. It became obvious this wasn’t tenable and that a compromise was needed. Enter the split, which reduced the season to 38 games. While fiddling with the size of the league is undesirable and a pain, something needs to be done. As I understand it there a few options under consideration, including: Option 1: Reduce league to 10 clubs, playing each other 4 times - a 36 game season. Tried and failed as relegation dropped 1 / 2 clubs out at the end of the season - attrition rate of 10%/25% undesirable. Option 2: Increase league to 14 clubs, playing each other 4 times - 42 game season. As bad as the original 12-club league with 44 game season and clubs won’t accept it. Option 3: Increase league to 16 clubs, playing each other 2 times - 30 game season. Personally, I favour Option 3 which I think has a number of good points which I won’t go into here but what do others think? Option 2 with a 6/8 split after two rounds of fixtures followed by a further two rounds. Ends up 36 games for top section/ 40 for the bottom group. No unfairness possibly affecting Title or Relegation and retains the split as something to target. Then enough games second half for both sections to change around a bit throughout the remainder of the season. Of course Clubs would vote that down as the bottom group lose an OF home game and potentially a couple of others against Clubs with a large travelling support. Partially offset though by an extra home fixture over the season. Or alternatively back to 18 teams playing each other twice with no split. Again no chance given the loss of home fixtures against the big boys. And Sky demand as many OF clashes as can be squeezed in. Money takes precedence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 43 minutes ago, El Grew said: It’s time splitting the league in half at this stage of the season was scrapped. It’s utter nonsense, and in my opinion achieves nothing and always ends up with some clubs having an imbalance in their home and away fixtures. In my view, a 12-team league doesn’t work. When it first came in, clubs played each other 4 times leading to a 44 game season. It became obvious this wasn’t tenable and that a compromise was needed. Enter the split, which reduced the season to 38 games. While fiddling with the size of the league is undesirable and a pain, something needs to be done. As I understand it there a few options under consideration, including: Option 1: Reduce league to 10 clubs, playing each other 4 times - a 36 game season. Tried and failed as relegation dropped 1 / 2 clubs out at the end of the season - attrition rate of 10%/25% undesirable. Option 2: Increase league to 14 clubs, playing each other 4 times - 42 game season. As bad as the original 12-club league with 44 game season and clubs won’t accept it. Option 3: Increase league to 16 clubs, playing each other 2 times - 30 game season. Personally, I favour Option 3 which I think has a number of good points which I won’t go into here but what do others think? A 14 team league playing each other 4 times is a 52 game season, not 42. A 14 team league would probably mean a split after two rounds (26 games) followed by two more rounds against the teams in your half of the league (12 games) meaning 38 games total. The problem with that, well one problem, is that there are 7 teams in each half so for every round of fixtures there is a team without a fixture. Option 3 only has two bigot fests a season so there is no way that is being voted in. Personally, I would go for an 18 team league, 34 games, but that won't happen as per option 3. Whilst the league is organised to suit the arse cheeks, nothing will ever improve the product. *Edit* Sorry, didn't consider a 6/8 split. (Still $hite though) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wellsince75 Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 In terms of balance of league set up. for me the split works better than what we've seen in the past. A larger league of say 14, 16 would simply mean more teams with nothing to play for. It would mean several clubs come to final third of a season with SFA to play for. We'd still have 2 clubs fight for league. 2-3 other chasing Europe. 1-2 clubs fighting relegation. The rest would be a non event. As poor as Scottish football is, I personally think the current league set up is the best it's ever been. It's more the product on the park that's regressing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spit_It_Out Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 They are 100 percent needing to scrap this play off nonsense for the team that finishes 11th rewarding a team for being utterly pish with another chance to stay in the league nope not for me. Straight two up and two up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wunderwell Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 At this stage of the season I feel it's best if we can send some inspectors to Falkirk to see what's wrong with their stadium just to give us some comfort. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Grew Posted April 15 Author Report Share Posted April 15 2 hours ago, grumpy said: A 14 team league playing each other 4 times is a 52 game season, not 42. A 14 team league would probably mean a split after two rounds (26 games) followed by two more rounds against the teams in your half of the league (12 games) meaning 38 games total. The problem with that, well one problem, is that there are 7 teams in each half so for every round of fixtures there is a team without a fixture. Option 3 only has two bigot fests a season so there is no way that is being voted in. Personally, I would go for an 18 team league, 34 games, but that won't happen as per option 3. Whilst the league is organised to suit the arse cheeks, nothing will ever improve the product. *Edit* Sorry, didn't consider a 6/8 split. (Still $hite though) Grumpy I’d like to say the 42 was a typo but it was my arithmetic to blame. 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Grew Posted April 15 Author Report Share Posted April 15 2 hours ago, wellsince75 said: A larger league of say 14, 16 would simply mean more teams with nothing to play for. Wellsince75, I appreciate your point but consider this: In the 18-club league, clubs only had to play 4 games against the OF and then with only 2 points for a win the maximum number of points each club could lose to them was 8. Now even if a club misses out on the top 6, the maximum number points they can lose to the OF is 18; and if they do make the top 6 it’s 24. Now I whilst I appreciate that no matter the size of league the OF will still dominate it but if clubs only had to play each of the OF twice in a season it would mean the maximum number of points each could lose would be 12 points. I apologise for taking the long way round to explain that the league is loaded towards the OF before a ball is kicked. Also, although as you say there were ‘meaningless’ games at the fag-end of a season, this gave clubs the chance to introduce younger players to first team football without under pressure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmcalpin Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 56 minutes ago, wunderwell said: At this stage of the season I feel it's best if we can send some inspectors to Falkirk to see what's wrong with their stadium just to give us some comfort. They have already complained to the SPFL regarding the use of artificial pitches. They don't want to have to rip theirs up and lay a grass one. Deja vu! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FirParkCornerExile Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 3 hours ago, wellsince75 said: In terms of balance of league set up. for me the split works better than what we've seen in the past. A larger league of say 14, 16 would simply mean more teams with nothing to play for. It would mean several clubs come to final third of a season with SFA to play for. We'd still have 2 clubs fight for league. 2-3 other chasing Europe. 1-2 clubs fighting relegation. The rest would be a non event. As poor as Scottish football is, I personally think the current league set up is the best it's ever been. It's more the product on the park that's regressing. Agreed and no one can point to any league reconstruction inn the last 50 years that delivered what was promised. With 5 games to go the only teams with nothing to play for are Rangers & St Mirren , why would we change that. The league should be looking at innovation , imaginative thinking about the current set up not adding more teams to add fuck all but a change of strip you are looking at. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wellsince75 Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 1 hour ago, El Grew said: Wellsince75, I appreciate your point but consider this: In the 18-club league, clubs only had to play 4 games against the OF and then with only 2 points for a win the maximum number of points each club could lose to them was 8. Now even if a club misses out on the top 6, the maximum number points they can lose to the OF is 18; and if they do make the top 6 it’s 24. Now I whilst I appreciate that no matter the size of league the OF will still dominate it but if clubs only had to play each of the OF twice in a season it would mean the maximum number of points each could lose would be 12 points. I apologise for taking the long way round to explain that the league is loaded towards the OF before a ball is kicked. Also, although as you say there were ‘meaningless’ games at the fag-end of a season, this gave clubs the chance to introduce younger players to first team football without under pressure. I hear you @El Grew and can see where you're coming from. The idea of playing teams twice certainly appeals - my biggest concern is there would be many meaningless games for many teams , yes we could play youngsters but I suspect fan numbers would reduce further. All if's buts and maybe's - good to debate different ideas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grizzlyg Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 2 hours ago, wellgirl said: I agree. I hate the play off and it's completely unfair to the teams in the championship. Absolutely agree. Two up two down Should be 11th in spfl v 4th in championship and 2nd v 3rd in championship. 2 semi final ties then a final, it is so in favour of the spfl club Ps. May 2015.......I love the play off set up!! 🤣🤣 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiderpig Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 3 hours ago, Spit_It_Out said: They are 100 percent needing to scrap this play off nonsense for the team that finishes 11th rewarding a team for being utterly pish with another chance to stay in the league nope not for me. Straight two up and two up. All that's needed with the playoffs is to copy the English set up, so a simple 2 relegated from the premiership, Championship, L1 and L2. The Championship, L1 and L2 winners promoted with the next 4 in each of those 3 leagues playing for the other promotion place. The 2 down from league 2 would be replaced by the Lowland and Highland league winners Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The African Posted April 15 Report Share Posted April 15 9 hours ago, Ya Bezzer! said: As it stands we have a 4 point advantage, or more, over all 4 teams below us. Even if we lost every match in the bottom 6, Kilmarnock and Ross County would need 4 points at least (goal difference is too close to really mean much right now so I'm not even taking that into consideration), Dundee would need 5 and St Johnstone would need 10. In the last 5 matches those clubs have taken the following Kilmarnock - 4 pts Dundee - 7 pts Ross County - 3 pts St Johnstone - 5 pts. So the worst possible scenario of us getting 0 points and using the others recent forms as an indicator, we still stay up. Even getting 1 draw makes it unlikely we finish lower than 9th. No team in the Bottom 6 has more than 1 win in their last 5 matches apart from Dundee. The chances of three teams leaping over us seems very unlikely. One factor which may have been missed when looking at the arithmetic possibilities here is that, should we somehow contrive to lose all five of our post split fixtures, then every other team in the lower half gets an automatic three point boost to their position. As such, our current situation is not as secure as we would hope. It would probably also be the case that, with goal difference being remarkably tight between all the teams involved, five defeats will not help us if we are level on points with anyone else at the end of the season. The solution is still in our hands thankfully. Pick up points wherever we can, as early as we can, and we will be safe for another year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The African Posted April 16 Report Share Posted April 16 1 hour ago, wellgirl said: But the teams below us still need to play one another and will drop points. Even if all the other clubs below us get an automatic 3 point boost they still need to play one another - and they'll drop points We are in 8th and we have an advantage over teams below us Surely we need to get behind the team right now - they really need it. We were 9th last season yes. We've been here before more than once We really are not in the worst position given our current points tally compared to the teams below us If we lose all our remaining games, then we are stuck on 39 points. With then three points from victories over us, Kilmarnock are on 38, Ross County are on 38, Dundee on 37 and St Johnstone are on 32. They would therefore need a further 2, 2, 3 and 8 points respectively, without getting into goal difference, to get above us on the table. Given each has four games remaining it does not seem beyond the realms of possibility that at least the first three might achieve this feat. On a more positive note, it is obviously better that we have this lead and the premise is based on the idea that we are going to get nothing from the remaining games. My main point was suggesting that the idea that we could lose all our games and still be safe was flawed and somewhat optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weeyin Posted April 16 Report Share Posted April 16 As bad as some people might think we are right now, our recent form in our last 6 games is only matched by St Johnstone. The other 4 teams have been playing worse than us. I certainly prefer our position (and form) in the table to the position where you have a 6 point gap to make up just to avoid the playoff spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewarkfanclub Posted April 16 Report Share Posted April 16 If we lost our remaining 5 games I still think St Johnstone would struggle to overcome our total. They would still need to win another 2 and draw one of their remaining 4. That seems unlikely, but not impossible. It would bring the play off spot into sharp focus though. Thankfully, I dont think we will lose all 5 games. Even a couple of shitfest draws should see us safe (I think!). It will be tight though, so Im not expecting to enjoy the next few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewelllfan Posted April 16 Report Share Posted April 16 On all the League reconstruction talk in here personally I want to see it expanded to 14 teams with a 6/8 split and basically adopt the Greek Model. 26 games pre split play all teams H&A Split into top 6 and bottom 8 all play H &A again. 36 games FOR T6 40 for Bottom 8 T3 European places guaranteed + Cup Winner/4th Then add a European Play off between 5/6/7/8 for final European Place. If Cup winner is outisde T8 4/5/6/7 contest P/O Bottom 2 Relegated Championship Winner and play off between 2nd and 5th come up That keeps your 4 Old Firms for TV deal. Gives teams in bottom half something to play and gets rid of the get out of Jail free card for 2nd bottom. To me that would be the most interesting and would hopefully improve youth development as their would be less fear of relegation. Model is also not perfect so open to ideas on how to improve it further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennyc Posted April 16 Report Share Posted April 16 14 hours ago, The African said: If we lose all our remaining games, then we are stuck on 39 points. With then three points from victories over us, Kilmarnock are on 38, Ross County are on 38, Dundee on 37 and St Johnstone are on 32. They would therefore need a further 2, 2, 3 and 8 points respectively, without getting into goal difference, to get above us on the table. Given each has four games remaining it does not seem beyond the realms of possibility that at least the first three might achieve this feat. Another factor to build in points wise, is that these teams all play each other so in every game points will be gained by one or both teams. Eg Killie play Saints so one at least would get to 39.....from that game alone If we lose all 5 games (IF) then we are in big trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
star sail Posted April 16 Report Share Posted April 16 21 minutes ago, dennyc said: Another factor to build in points wise, is that these teams all play each other so in every game points will be gained by one or both teams. Eg Killie play Saints so one at least would get to 39.....from that game alone If we lose all 5 games (IF) then we are in big trouble. If we lose all 5 games we would deserve to be relegated as the poorest team in the bottom half. Current Form and form throughout the season does not suggest that will happen. I can understand the angst that this is a possibility but as a potential outcome it is a massive outlier. Possible yes, likely no. If this were to happen, we would be looking for a new manager in the summer. This squad of players has it's faults but given the dross we will be up against over the next few weeks 5 loses without reply would be unacceptable. It is all just chat however. It won't happen. We are staying up this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twistandshout1983 Posted April 16 Report Share Posted April 16 I know things don't look great at present but I will be surprised if we dont win any of the last 5 games. We have won at Ibrox, Tannadice, Easter Road and St Mirren who all made the top 6, so think we could win at least 1 of the away games . Maybe not on current form as we will have to improve but there is a chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Posted April 16 Report Share Posted April 16 2 hours ago, dennyc said: If we lose all 5 games (IF) then we are in big trouble. Of course, I might be entirely off with this – I’m no mathematician – but here’s how I see it: We’d need to only reach a maximum of 40 points to be in trouble, which would mean one draw and four defeats. At the same time, Dundee would have to pick up at least seven points from their remaining five matches. And then, either Ross County or Kilmarnock would need to reach 41 points or more to push us down to 11th place. Possible? Yes. Likely? I wouldn't put my life savings on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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