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That Old Chestnut - Do We Move Or Do We Stay
Goggles & Flippers replied to Kmcalpin's topic in Club Chat
Happy to counter it, because I don't think we're actually disagreeing as much as it might seem. I completely accept a new stadium will have ongoing maintenance costs. Every stadium does. My point wasn't that, once the borrowing is paid off, every penny suddenly becomes available for players. It was that the financing cost disappears, while the additional revenue streams remain. The comparison also has to be against Fir Park, not against a hypothetical stadium with zero costs. Fir Park already requires ongoing maintenance, and as it heads towards 100 years old those costs are only likely to increase. Any new stadium will also need upkeep, but as that stadium moves into it's third decade from completion you'd expect significantly lower major maintenance requirements than we're facing with Fir Park. So the question becomes whether the extra revenue comfortably exceeds both the financing costs while the debt exists, and the lifecycle maintenance costs afterwards. Just to illustrate why I think it does, I'll use deliberately very conservative assumptions. To avoid inflation muddying the waters, let's assume 2026 revenues and 2026 costs throughout and assume a hypothetical key hand over in 2030 and last mortgage payment in 2050. The gap between income and expenditure should remain broadly comparable in real terms as inflation is difficult to predict. Attendances - I've proposed an 18–20k stadium. We look like we'll have around 5,500–6,000 season ticket holders this season. Twenty years from now I've assumed only another 2,000 added to our home gate, giving a regular home support of around 8,000. That's hardly an ambitious forecast. Using the figures the club published through Our Club, Our Future above and supplied to the WS by the club. An extra 2,000 home supporters works out at roughly £343k per season. Allowing for VAT and rounding down, I've only credited £275k. Away support - I've assumed increasing the Old Firm allocation from the current McLean capacity (around 4,800) to 10,000. Using a Cat A ticket price of £33, deducting VAT and allowing for concessions gives an average of roughly £24 per seat. 3.5 Old Firm home games × 5,000 extra seats = around £420k, which I've rounded down to £400k. I've also assumed Hearts bring around 7,000 supporters once or twice a season. So using an average of 1.5 games gives another £60k, again rounded down. Commercial and hospitality - Motherwell's published commercial income in 2024/25 was around £985k. St Johnstone generated around £1.2m in the same period, despite averaging considerably smaller crowds. If a modern stadium with vastly improved hospitality, double the current average attendance, conferencing and sponsorship opportunities. Increased commercial income of £450k, I'd argue that's a very cautious estimate. Non-matchday restaurant -Instead of a hospitality suite sitting empty for most of the week, sweat the asset and open it to the public. 70 covers per day (lunch and dinner). Average spend £24. 320 trading days. That's around £540k turnover. A well-run independent restaurant might make 12–18% net profit, but I've assumed only £60k profit. Office space Subletting office space to organisations like the Well Society, community partners or other tenants: £50k. Naming rights Most research I've found suggests £100k–150k is achievable. I've only assumed £80k. A ultra conservative £1.375m. that's before we even start talking about concerts, exhibitions, conferences, functions, improved catering, additional sponsorship inventory, or other events. Combine with what we must spend every year on a creaking Fir Park or even a Fir Park with a new POD, ca you honestly envisage maintenance of over £1.7m every single year needed? So yes, there will absolutely be maintenance costs. But unless those maintenance costs somehow exceed the additional recurring revenue every single year, the principle still holds. Once the borrowing is gone, the debt repayments disappear, but the extra revenue streams continue. That's really the point I was trying to make. - Yesterday
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He doesnt currently play in the Scottish Premiership. And I never said we should sign him. But that doesnt mean he wouldnt score goals in the SPL for the right club.
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If there was ever a player who survived purely on his past reputation then he's it. Been dugmeat for years.
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For Lyndon Dykes read Lydia the Tatooed Lady. No thank-you. The guy takes money under false pretences.
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He current form is 3 goals in each of the past 2 seasons. Would rather keep Said up front that waste a penny on Dykes.
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Lyndon Dykes would absolutely score goals in the Scottish Premiership. But he is way out of our price range. So we wont and shouldnt be signing him.
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Havnar Bóltfelag vs Motherwell (30/7) Discussion
joewarkfanclub replied to David's topic in Club Chat
You have no soul! 😍😍😍 -
Didn't Celtic sing that first😂.
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Nooooooo that gives me the fear. Major donkey!
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Don't mean we can't change our song. Beatles are over rated.
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Dear God, no.
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It has happened countless times at the old firm where a young player is perceived to be the next big thing usually by the Scottish media only to disappear into oblivion after a year or so.
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Is that not what The Rangers do whilst spending millions. We will pluck a reserve from somewhere and pay next to nothing....
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Think Lowrys contract runs to 2027 with Wycombe. So i guess loaning him allows him to keep getting the big wages. I presume we will pay our maximum and wycombe the balance. Win win for everyone. Hopefully he knuckles down and grafts whilst showcasing his skills.
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I anticipate a new striker from the German second tier we've never heard of.
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We only appear to sign footballers now. Dykes is anything but.
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Even if we're trying to move away from loan deals, it makes more sense in a case like this. If the guy lives up to his potential, great for both parties. If he lives up to the problematic reputation he seems to have gathered, bye bye.
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I read today that Charlton Athletic looks to be the most likely destination for Dykes. I certainly don't fancy him at Fir Park.
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I hope not as in the last 2 seasons Ive almost scored as many goals as him and i dont play football 😜 His wages demands would be mental for what he gives in return imo
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Could be wrong but cant see it for us. His wage demands to ROI would be too much of a risk for us given his mediocre form of late. Hope we give it a miss.
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Heard a wee rumour us and Hibs are looking at Lyndon Dykes. Might be nonsense, but just wondering if anyone else heard anything?
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I think we’ll be looking to make four signings minimum. A couple of which I’d expect to be exciting attacking options with moneyball potential. An experienced head along the lines of Spencer would also be welcome.
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Even when the balls in the right place hes not. , his reading of the game is poor as his first touch. Time to move him out.
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Still think we need 4 signings one cb two midfielders and a striker. Takes into account McGhee o,donnell and McGinn are injured. And we are likely to lose TJ and stama up front with slats just and watt gone.
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Havnar Bóltfelag vs Motherwell (30/7) Discussion
joewarkfanclub replied to David's topic in Club Chat
What younger fans? Its only been on the go since 2015! I must admit I dont like to hear it sung half heartedly, but at the end of a game after an important win, its brilliant!