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Goggles & Flippers

Run in to the split - Predictions

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So lets see who the tipsters are among us. 5 games to go, predict the scores and the points total.

St Johnstone (H)

St Mirren (A)

Hibs (A)

Livvy (H)

Killie (A)

1-0, 2-2, 3-2, 2-1, 2-0 = 7 points from 15 and 8th place after Killie. 

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The StJ, Killie and Livingston games I fancy us to win, but not by much, St Mirren are on some decent form just now so I reckon a draw is our best return for that one. As for Hibs they are chasing 3rd so anything we get there is a bonus but I see a defeat.

So for me 3 wins and a draw, 10 points from 15 is very achievable. 

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Only once in the last 10 years has the team in 11th finished with more than 36 points. Anything over 7 points before the split is a success in my eyes, leaving us needing one win in the last 5 which if we can't manage we don't deserve to stay up.

So with that said:

St Johnstone W 2-1

St Mirren draw 1-1

Hibs Loss 2-0

Livi Win 1-0

Killie draw 0-0

8 points having us 8th at the split needing one win post split.

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I was full of hope before Saturday but given the spanking we received I think we'll draw with St Johnstone, lose to St Mirren and Hibs, draw with Livi and draw with Killie.

 

Three points in the next five games, needing us to find a couple of wins after the split to steer clear of the danger and then give the new manager some time to clear out some of the absolute dross that's in our squad.

 

Long, Hastie, Chapman, Lamie, McGinley, Seedorf, Polworth, all the loanees etc etc etc can all go.

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I’ve given up trying to predict exact Motherwell scores but injuries or not, by hook or by crook, we need  another 6 points minimum before the split. 

I’ve no idea where those points will come from but I could easily envisage us taking as little as 0-2. 

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7 hours ago, Goggles & Flippers said:

So lets see who the tipsters are among us. 5 games to go, predict the scores and the points total.

St Johnstone (H)

St Mirren (A)

Hibs (A)

Livvy (H)

Killie (A)

1-0, 2-2, 3-2, 2-1, 0-2 = 7 points from 15 and 8th place after Killie. 

St Johnstone 1-0 win

St Mirren 1-1 draw

Hibs 2-1 defeat

Livvy 0 - 0 draw

Killie 1-1 draw

6 points. Any advance on that with our injury list will be remarkable.

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48 minutes ago, milo said:

I’ve given up trying to predict exact Motherwell scores but injuries or not, by hook or by crook, we need  another 6 points minimum before the split. 

I’ve no idea where those points will come from but I could easily envisage us taking as little as 0-2. 

I was as pissed off as anyone after Saturday but on the evidence of what we've seen so far since Alexander took over I think it's quite a leap to say you could "easily" envisage us losing the next five games.

Hamilton was awful. Utterly awful, but as yet it's one awful game out of eight.  I think it's a touch early to go into full blown "we're doomed" mode just yet.  Might still come but based on what I've seen I would anticipate the smattering of wins, draws and losses we've seen thus far.

For some perspective within a few months of taking over mid-season Stuart McCall was on the back of 6-0, 5-0 and two 4-0 losses. When McGhee came back and stabilised Baraclough's team he still presided over a 6-0 and 7-0 loss.  Awful, abysmal defeats are not in themselves uncommon for Motherwell managers in their opening months in charge.

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St Mirren and Hamilton ending in a draw is decent for us, keeps relegation at bay and keeps our very slim top six chances alive.

 

If we are to have any chance of top six, we need 3 pts on Saturday.

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I won't predict past Saturday because of our absentee list. However given the probable defensive line up against St Johnstone I'd settle for a draw right now. GA has improved the team a bit but we have yet to play well over a full 90 minutes. Playing well for 45 isn't really good enough in our position. 

Who knows though, St Johnstone's attention may be deflected on Saturday and we may unearth a gem of a youngster. I also want to see us show more fighting spirit and energy, especially when defending off the ball.  A loss on Saturday  although unhelpful,  wouldn't be the end of the world. But I don't want to pick up any more injuries or red cards. Is that too much to ask for?

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I think it all depends on Saturday.

If we win I can see us being comfortable and only losing to Hibs. If we lose there is the danger of going on another terrible run.

We will find out a lot about Alexander this weekend.

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So hard to predict what Motherwell we’ll see from one week to the next or even one half to the next! 

With no confidence in any of these being right I’d go with the following:

St Johnstone 1-1 (1 point)

St Mirren 1-2 (3 points)

Hibs 2-0 (0 points)

Livvy 1-0 (3 points)

Killie 1-0 (0 points) 

Strangely enough I think we’re more likely to beat St Mirren and Livi than St Johnstone and Killie, which admittedly is a bit odd given league positions!

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I've looked at the historic data and crunched the numbers, and I reckon that we will lose the ones I thought we would win, win the ones I thought we'd lose, and a draw.

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GA has definitely improved the Well since his arrival, however Saturdays absolute shitfest surely can’t happen again but I e been a Motherwell fan long enough to expect the worst but I’d expect a good few changes, GA alluded to it in his post match interview about choosing the wrong team, I think those that want away Campbell, Polworth, Long, SOD n Gallaghe (if fit) have to start performing to get their best move, I’m sure GA will tell them as much, I’d say we will get 10 pts out of 15 starting with a victory against Saints, draw against the Midden, close loss against Hibs, victory against Livvi who’s bubble has burst but their safe so no pressure,  n a victory against Killie, never mind top 6 just get as far away from the bottom 2 n be safe for GA to rejig the squad for next season. CMYW!!!!!!

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18 hours ago, Motherwell Daft said:

 I’d say we will get 10 pts out of 15 starting with a victory against Saints, 

Yes please - If that was a deal or no deal option I'd snap your hand off.

I just hope for more highs than lows.

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Any normal season lately, I’d have said 10 points is easily doable but this season has been anything but normal so I fear we could be short of points and in trouble come the split. 

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I have more confidence in getting points away from home as expect to win at St Mirren and get at least a point at Killie but home games any point is a bonus as normally crap but let’s hope St J got eyes on final next week

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On 2/17/2021 at 7:31 PM, Andy_P said:

I was as pissed off as anyone after Saturday but on the evidence of what we've seen so far since Alexander took over I think it's quite a leap to say you could "easily" envisage us losing the next five games.

Hamilton was awful. Utterly awful, but as yet it's one awful game out of eight.  I think it's a touch early to go into full blown "we're doomed" mode just yet.  Might still come but based on what I've seen I would anticipate the smattering of wins, draws and losses we've seen thus far.

For some perspective within a few months of taking over mid-season Stuart McCall was on the back of 6-0, 5-0 and two 4-0 losses. When McGhee came back and stabilised Baraclough's team he still presided over a 6-0 and 7-0 loss.  Awful, abysmal defeats are not in themselves uncommon for Motherwell managers in their opening months in charge.

Need to wait and see. I seriously hope I’m wrong with my points gained prediction but the growing injury list has only lessened our chances of the required haul. 

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On 2/17/2021 at 6:48 PM, milo said:

I’ve given up trying to predict exact Motherwell scores but injuries or not, by hook or by crook, we need  another 6 points minimum before the split. 

I’ve no idea where those points will come from but I could easily envisage us taking as little as 0-2. 

Given our injury list just now, making predictions about team line ups and results is a real lottery. My fear, which is shared by a few others apparently, is that if we get beaten today we'll take a nosedive in confidence and consequently form. 6 points would be great but 0-2 is by no means impossible. Its now time for GA to earn his corn.

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22 minutes ago, Kmcalpin said:

Given our injury list just now, making predictions about team line ups and results is a real lottery. My fear, which is shared by a few others apparently, is that if we get beaten today we'll take a nosedive in confidence and consequently form. 6 points would be great but 0-2 is by no means impossible. Its now time for GA to earn his corn.

As I said in my original post, regardless of circumstances, we need 6 points minimum pre-split. 

We’ll probably need minimum 6 points post split also in order to finish no lower than 10th.

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The following bodes well for us. Given their tricky run ins, I reckon 2 wins from the next 5 will see us safe (providing we don't implode after the split)...

"On paper, there is no doubt Hamilton have the trickiest run-in, as they face tough trips to Hibernian, Aberdeen and Livingston over their next five games.

Bottom-club Ross County's fixtures also do not look too favourable, as the Highlanders have games against Celtic and Hibernian amongst their next five Premiership matches."

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30 minutes ago, Ped_MFC said:

Interesting bit on the BBC looking at the relegation fight and what each side needs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/56102247

I don't buy their assumption though that 32 points could be enough and that victory today would make us a point from survival.

remember hibs the year yaccies beat them in the playoffs, did they not just need x amount of points leading up to the split and got basically feck all ??

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I’d like to revise my prediction. I don’t even think we’ll get 0.

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