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Run in to the split - Predictions

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A small ray of light. There's an international break after the Livingston game. I normally hate these but not this time. It may just give us a breathing space to get players fit.

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3 hours ago, Kmcalpin said:

A small ray of light. There's an international break after the Livingston game. I normally hate these but not this time. It may just give us a breathing space to get players fit.

You mean exactly like I said 2 posts back. 

Pay attention  Dave :-)

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1 hour ago, Welldaft Mk1 said:

You mean exactly like I said 2 posts back. 

Pay attention  Dave :-)

My apologies Iain. Put it down to pre senile dementia. 

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Looking at the table, one more win would give us an eight point gap over Kilmarnock and Hamilton Accies. That would require them to win three games to catch us in their remaining eight games (nine for Accies). Might be a tall order for two teams that have won seven and six games so far this season. If we can't win one game of our last eight, we deserve to go down. I reckon six points would definitely see us stay up. Problem would be if we perform as we did against Accies and St Johnstone, six points from eight games might be beyond us. 

For me, it's still too close to call...

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6 hours ago, MelvinBragg said:

Looking at the table, one more win would give us an eight point gap over Kilmarnock and Hamilton Accies. That would require them to win three games to catch us in their remaining eight games (nine for Accies). Might be a tall order for two teams that have won seven and six games so far this season. If we can't win one game of our last eight, we deserve to go down. I reckon six points would definitely see us stay up. Problem would be if we perform as we did against Accies and St Johnstone, six points from eight games might be beyond us. 

For me, it's still too close to call...

thats exactly what the hibs fans said under butcher 

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19 minutes ago, smiddy said:

thats exactly what the hibs fans said under butcher 

I know. I made it clear that I'm not certain we'll get the win or two we need. I saw somewhere else on here mention the year we ended up in the playoffs that Ross County went on a ridiculous run under McIntyre. Not impossible that could happen again although Accies and Killie are leaving it late for that kind of big push...

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I genuinely believe that all 3 sides below us could win 3 or 4 of their remaining games. 

Let us not forget that all of them have a game v us and in fact Killie will have 2 games v us. And yes they all play each other. But that also means there are 3 or so games when the bottom 4 cannot all get maximum points. 

So I think that to be completely safe you probably need 37 points as I would not see all 3 of them winning more than 4 games.

So we really need 3 wins probably to avoid bottom 2 places. The sooner the better but one would hope we can manage that in the 8 games remaining. 

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We need 4 points before the split and some of those points need to come v Killie. Anything less than that and we’re going to leave ourselves requiring too much post split when we’re really up against it.

1 point and 1 goal (and a penalty at that) is an absolutely shameful total from 3 games v Accies, St Johnstone and St Mirren but we are where we are.

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Alexander knows we're probably going to be deep in trouble until the end, how quickly things can change and how fragile our form can be from game to game. Last night was a big improvement but we have to start scoring and winning again, wherever that is, though Kilmarnock would be huge. We've put ourselves in this mess, but it's in our own hands, so don't be relying on others to get us out if it. 

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34 minutes ago, Welldaft Mk1 said:

So we really need 3 wins probably to avoid bottom 2 places. The sooner the better but one would hope we can manage that in the 8 games remaining. 

We have taken 7 wins from a total of 30 games, can you honestly see us taking 3 wins from the 8 games remaining?

Yeah, I know most are against the teams around us, but so have half of the 30 games played so far.

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6 minutes ago, KirkySuperSub said:

We have taken 7 wins from a total of 30 games, can you honestly see us taking 3 wins from the 8 games remaining?

Yeah, I know most are against the teams around us, but so have half of the 30 games played so far.

I agree on paper it seems unlikely but we needed 3 wins from 11 which sounded far more achievable. Our failure to win any of the past 3, especially considering the opposition, now means the task is now a far bigger and, worryingly, more unlikely ask. 

If we fail to win even 2 more games this season (2 in 11) then we quite possibly will finish in the bottom 2 and on that tally who could say we didn’t deserve it.

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29 minutes ago, KirkySuperSub said:

We have taken 7 wins from a total of 30 games, can you honestly see us taking 3 wins from the 8 games remaining?

Yeah, I know most are against the teams around us, but so have half of the 30 games played so far.

We've won 3 of our last 8, so it's do-able. All depends on a few more key players returning. 

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1 hour ago, milo said:

We need 4 points before the split and some of those points need to come v Killie. Anything less than that and we’re going to leave ourselves requiring too much post split when we’re really up against it.

1 point and 1 goal (and a penalty at that) is an absolutely shameful total from 3 games v Accies, St Johnstone and St Mirren but we are where we are.

Is it shameful when we have been missing more than half a team ? Certainly for the St Johnstone game. 

I don’t see us getting anything from Saturday so that makes it 3 wins from 7 games quite probably. Not easy granted but they are mostly against sides in and around the bottom 6. 

We should have more players back for this run in and if we cannot win 2 to 3 games post split we deserve to go down. 

I am going to jinx it but I don’t see us losing our last remaining game v Accies. I think we will exact our revenge. 

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1 hour ago, Welldaft Mk1 said:

We should have more players back for this run in and if we cannot win 2 to 3 games post split we deserve to go down.

Yes Iain and this could be critical. Hopefully we don't pick up any more serious injuries but the return of the likes of Gallagher, Lawless and Donnelly could be critical during the run in. Whilst we want to do as well as possible all we need to do to keep out of danger is to do very slightly worse than our close rivals in the basement, given we hold a points advantage.  If we keep pace we retain the points advantage as is.  So heads to heads will be crucial.

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4 hours ago, KirkySuperSub said:

We have taken 7 wins from a total of 30 games, can you honestly see us taking 3 wins from the 8 games remaining?

Yeah, I know most are against the teams around us, but so have half of the 30 games played so far.

The BBC article that suggests that 32 /33 points would be enough (not sure how to post link) works on the basis of form to date of all the bottom teams (that is my interpretation anyway). 

I think it is natural to worry that our season long form will not improve whilst the form of the bottom three will. The reality is that for all four teams the season long form will not change that much leaving Motherwell in the driving seat. Generally the league table does not lie by this point in the season. 

That does not account howeverfor a team finding form that they have not found all season . That Accies/ Kilmarnock and RC will all find form that has alluded them all season in highly unlikely. 

I have a nagging doubt however that RC and Killie in particular just might. It is this nagging doubt that keeps us on tenter hooks.

I suppose we could try to be positive and say that it will be Motherwell that will find that illusive form. 

Our point average is one point per game (just about). Keep that up and we will be safe but it will not be pretty. 

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26 minutes ago, star sail said:

The BBC article that suggests that 32 /33 points would be enough (not sure how to post link) works on the basis of form to date of all the bottom teams (that is my interpretation anyway). 

I think it is natural to worry that our season long form will not improve whilst the form of the bottom three will. The reality is that for all four teams the season long form will not change that much leaving Motherwell in the driving seat. Generally the league table does not lie by this point in the season. 

That does not account howeverfor a team finding form that they have not found all season . That Accies/ Kilmarnock and RC will all find form that has alluded them all season in highly unlikely. 

I have a nagging doubt however that RC and Killie in particular just might. It is this nagging doubt that keeps us on tenter hooks.

I suppose we could try to be positive and say that it will be Motherwell that will find that illusive form. 

Our point average is one point per game (just about). Keep that up and we will be safe but it will not be pretty. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/56102247

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Not exactly great use of the numbers there. Basically using points per game to point out that the teams at the bottom are likely to finish at the bottom...

 

11th has only finished with more than 36 points once in the last 10 years. Thats really what we need to get to.

 

I said at the start of this thread 7 points would be a good return, if we get to that brilliant. Thats a big ask but looking at things if we can get a draw and a win out the next three we'll be in a good place going in to the split. A win and a draw post split then would get us to 37.

As folk have said if we can't get 8 points from the last 8 games we deserve to get relegated.

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in essence 3 wins between now and the end of the season and we're likely to be safe.

I remember pre season that I thought this would be an outstanding season for us ..........(and sigh)

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22 minutes ago, middleeastdave said:

With a month between last pre split fixture and first post split, we should have a full team

We could have THREE full teams. Admittedly, some will be better than others.

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1 hour ago, middleeastdave said:

With a month between last pre split fixture and first post split, we should have a full team, even Charlie Dunne might be fit!!

Two weeks is it not? 

Last pre-split 20th/21st March, first post-split 3rd/4th April.

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I'm a bit confused Andy. We play Killie on 20 March. The next fixture is scheduled for 3 April against St Johnstone (A)????? There's then a break until 18 April. Something odd.

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