2026/27 Ins & Outs Discussion

[weeyin]

59 minutes ago, texanwellfan said:

He was playing along side Chris Wood who has moved for 15M 25M and 15M. Just looked way better than Wood. 

Wood has a much better track record than Just and played at a consistently higher level.

When we signed him, Just had been on a season long loan to a 2nd division Austrian team.

Which goes to show what great scouting combined with great coaching can do.

[texanwellfan]

20 minutes ago, weeyin said:

Wood has a much better track record than Just and played at a consistently higher level.

When we signed him, Just had been on a season long loan to a 2nd division Austrian team.

Which goes to show what great scouting combined with great coaching can do.

I’m not saying we should expect 15m but I think 4M is on the low side. 

[David]

Transfer fees aren’t really based on how highly supporters rate a player. They’re based on what the market is willing to pay, and historically clubs in Scotland outside Celtic and Rangers rarely command £6m fees unless you’re talking truly exceptional circumstances.

Like a Lennon Miller.

The World Cup definitely helps exposure, no doubt about it, but one tournament doesn’t automatically double a player’s value overnight.

I think there’s a difference between saying he’s played at a £6m level and saying a club will actually pay £6m.

Those aren’t always the same thing.

[weeyin]

It's like Bargain Hunt. Need two or more interested buyers to start a bidding war.

Ultimately, as David says, it's about what the market will pay. Many factors are in play there from the cost of comparable players to resale value. The World Cup helps raise profiles and interest which is why, if we are selling, we should take advantage of the uptick in publicity. Plus it's another success story we can point to when trying to sign new players.

While 3 or 4 million might feel low, it's a pretty good return on investment financially and for what has done for us on the pitch. I'm sure the Board will have run the numbers and figured out what is reasonable. I remember Caldwell quoting all the stats for Miller comparing him to similar players in his age group, and I'm sure they will be doing the same for all or potential transfers out.

 

[Orinoco]

What you say is very true, but valuations are increasing at a stupid rate, stupidly quickly across europe. Scottish football should not be excluded from these rises just because what happened in the past. Our guys are under contract and extremely important part of the team cog.

 

 

[weeyin]

11 minutes ago, Orinoco said:

What you say is very true, but valuations are increasing at a stupid rate, stupidly quickly across europe. Scottish football should not be excluded from these rises just because what happened in the past. Our guys are under contract and extremely important part of the team cog.

They are in some leagues. The markets where we picked up Priestman, Watt and Just, not so much.

I'm sure if we can get more, we will do that. The fact they still have long-ish contracts increases their value too. 

 

[Richie]

Perhaps going over old ground, but I'm not sure bidding wars in the context of transfer fees are much of a thing, at our level anyway.

There will come a point where bid(s) are tabled which the Club finds acceptable.

Any bidding war between clubs will be in terms of contract and wages.

FWIW I think around £6m could just about be achievable, but it would also be the ceiling of what we could reasonably expect.

[wellsince75]

Stay or Go -  either way better to get sorted at pace - that way the we know the scale of recruitment.  

It's bitter sweet to see so many of our team attract this level of attention.  I'd love more of the talk to be around who's arriving than leaving. 

Tomorrow I fully expect to see some of the new signings showing off the new kit.   

[Stuwell2]

I’d prefer that we don’t sell all three but realistically it look like they will all go so my predictions are

Just will go for between £5m - £6m (rumours say Celtic have offered £4m which I’d say is a low offer that others will better)

Maswanhise £3.5m - £4.5m (rumours say Anderlecht have offered £3.5m but we’re holding out for £4m - £5m)

Watt £2m - £2.5m (rumours say Samsunspor have made 2 bids that we’ve rejected and are looking for at least £1.75 to start talks - which I see as low)

I’m expecting around £10m minimum for the 3 of them. 
 

edit: I was told by someone who has contacts within Ibrox that they wanted Watt and that £2m was their starting offer but with Rohl leaving things changed and McInnes didn’t see him as fitting into his style so the interest was dropped. Seem a bit crazy but you never know. 

[grizzlyg]

If just was a sellik player he would be valued at 25 million.   I say to any interested clubs start the bidding at 7 million

[Happy Dosser]

I would be dismayed if we sell any of our assets to either of the OF. Just in particular is a class act and Watt is a real find (shows you what the right coaching and man-management can do). Maswhanise I'm not so sure about  because he may have found his ceiling, like Blair,  and has done little since February, possibly because he has been unsettled by speculation. Even so, I could live with a transfer to the likes of Anderlecht for 2-3 million. 

[David]

15 minutes ago, Happy Dosser said:

I would be dismayed if we sell any of our assets to either of the OF. Just in particular is a class act and Watt is a real find (shows you what the right coaching and man-management can do). Maswhanise I'm not so sure about  because he may have found his ceiling, like Blair,  and has done little since February, possibly because he has been unsettled by speculation. Even so, I could live with a transfer to the likes of Anderlecht for 2-3 million. 

I'm not so sure it's down to him being unsettled, and more likely to be the one issue that saw him arrive at Fir Park in the first place. 

A lack of consistency. There's a lot of really good players out there, but the great players who make it at the top level tend to be more consistent than most. 

He was initially brought through the Leicester City academy, so he obviously turned some heads previously. But he was let go for a reason, and that reason is likely a lack of consistency. The talent is there, there's no doubt about that. 

[wellfan1996]

2 hours ago, grizzlyg said:

If just was a sellik player he would be valued at 25 million.   I say to any interested clubs start the bidding at 7 million

Always need to add on the OF fannies tax sod be looking at 9 mil if one of those

Edited 18 hours ago by wellfan1996

[joewarkfanclub]

7 hours ago, David said:

Transfer fees aren’t really based on how highly supporters rate a player. They’re based on what the market is willing to pay, and historically clubs in Scotland outside Celtic and Rangers rarely command £6m fees unless you’re talking truly exceptional circumstances.

Like a Lennon Miller.

The World Cup definitely helps exposure, no doubt about it, but one tournament doesn’t automatically double a player’s value overnight.

I think there’s a difference between saying he’s played at a £6m level and saying a club will actually pay £6m.

Those aren’t always the same thing.

Just is currently a better player than Lennon Miller.

Udinese payed £4.5m for potential.

Just is the finished article and has showed it on the world stage.

Im not suggesting we get £10m for him. But we should at least be getting Miller level cash.

[Kmcalpin]

13 minutes ago, joewarkfanclub said:

Just is currently a better player than Lennon Miller.

Udinese payed £4.5m for potential.

Just is the finished article and has showed it on the world stage.

Im not suggesting we get £10m for him. But we should at least be getting Miller level cash.

I agree with your logic Joe and would be looking to get at least £6m for him, but nowhere near £10m. He's proved his credentials, under pressure, at a major world tournament. 

[David]

14 hours ago, joewarkfanclub said:

Just is currently a better player than Lennon Miller.

Udinese payed £4.5m for potential.

Just is the finished article and has showed it on the world stage.

Im not suggesting we get £10m for him. But we should at least be getting Miller level cash.

I understand the hype coming off last season and all that, but I think we need to row it back a little as far as expectations go. 

I think people are putting far too much weight on a couple of World Cup performances and ignoring the bigger picture.

Just is 26 years old and, prior to arriving here, his career trajectory was hardly that of a player clubs were lining up to spend huge money on.

He spent years in Denmark moving between the first and second tiers, then had a spell in the Austrian second division, before ending up at what is seen as a mid-table Scottish Premiership club.

Aye, he had a very good World Cup, but let’s keep perspective. He scored twice against Iran, then got a consolation goal against Belgium in a heavy defeat, and New Zealand still finished bottom of the group and went home early.

That tournament absolutely raises his profile, but clubs don’t suddenly ignore 7 or 8 years of previous evidence because of three good games.

The Lennon Miller comparison absolutely does not work for me either. Udinese paid for an 18-year-old with massive upside and potential resale value.

Just is much closer to the finished article, which usually means lower upside and lower transfer fee, even if he’s arguably the better player today.

If he was 20 and had just put in those performances, we’d be having a completely different conversation. But he isn't, so we're not.

[star sail]

23 minutes ago, David said:

I understand the hype coming off last season and all that, but I think we need to row it back a little as far as expectations go. 

I think people are putting far too much weight on a couple of World Cup performances and ignoring the bigger picture.

Just is 26 years old and, prior to arriving here, his career trajectory was hardly that of a player clubs were lining up to spend huge money on.

He spent years in Denmark moving between the first and second tiers, then had a spell in the Austrian second division, before ending up at what is seen as a mid-table Scottish Premiership club.

Aye, he had a very good World Cup, but let’s keep perspective. He scored twice against Iran, then got a consolation goal against Belgium in a heavy defeat, and New Zealand still finished bottom of the group and went home early.

That tournament absolutely raises his profile, but clubs don’t suddenly ignore 7 or 8 years of previous evidence because of three good games.

The Lennon Miller comparison absolutely does not work for me either. Udinese paid for an 18-year-old with massive upside and potential resale value.

Just is much closer to the finished article, which usually means lower upside and lower transfer fee, even if he’s arguably the better player today.

If he was 20 and had just put in those performances, we’d be having a completely different conversation. But he isn't, so we're not.

I think you are underselling the player on almost every level.

I am not an expert on transfer fees but I would imagine that finished articles sell for more than their younger selves. 

Would Ronaldo's first couple of transfers be anywhere near his transfer fee to Juventus?

Three goals in a WC is three goals. As somebody joked earlier, he scored two more than the entire Scotland team combined and they played lowly Haiti.

How many Scotland players in history have scored 3 goals at a WC? You can't underplay that sort of achievement.

Just was fantastic last season and had more of an impact than Miller did at any time in his Motherwell career. EJ is worth £10 million. Compare with Engels at Celtic. Just had a better season and look at the money Celtic have turned down for Engels

Unfortunately Motherwell will never get £10 million for him because he plays for Motherwell but there are worse players that have commanded more. Look at the valuation of Fernandez at Rangers. Was there not talk of £18+ million for him?

We need to be talking our players up not talking them down.

[joewarkfanclub]

28 minutes ago, David said:

I understand the hype coming off last season and all that, but I think we need to row it back a little as far as expectations go. 

I think people are putting far too much weight on a couple of World Cup performances and ignoring the bigger picture.

Just is 26 years old and, prior to arriving here, his career trajectory was hardly that of a player clubs were lining up to spend huge money on.

He spent years in Denmark moving between the first and second tiers, then had a spell in the Austrian second division, before ending up at what is seen as a mid-table Scottish Premiership club.

Aye, he had a very good World Cup, but let’s keep perspective. He scored twice against Iran, then got a consolation goal against Belgium in a heavy defeat, and New Zealand still finished bottom of the group and went home early.

That tournament absolutely raises his profile, but clubs don’t suddenly ignore 7 or 8 years of previous evidence because of three good games.

The Lennon Miller comparison absolutely does not work for me either. Udinese paid for an 18-year-old with massive upside and potential resale value.

Just is much closer to the finished article, which usually means lower upside and lower transfer fee, even if he’s arguably the better player today.

If he was 20 and had just put in those performances, we’d be having a completely different conversation. But he isn't, so we're not.

Are you saying Just isnt worth £4.5m on todays market?

I dont want to diminish Lennon Millers impact or legacy at Motherwell FC, but one of the reasons we didnt miss him at all last season was Elijah Just.

I understand your point about sell on, but at 26 I dont think its outwith the realms of possibility that Just has at least 1 more big move in him if he develops further.

For example (and Id rather this didnt happen) if Celtic bought him for £4.5m on a 4 year deal and sold him on in 2 years to the EPL after some Champions League level performances, they would easily double their money.

 

[David]

I’m not trying to undersell him. I rate him highly and I think he’s been outstanding for us.

But I think there are two different arguments being mixed together here.

One is: how good is Elijah Just?

The other is: what would a buying club realistically pay Motherwell for him?

Those are not the same thing in my view.

On the Ronaldo comparison, I don’t think it works at all. Ronaldo’s Juventus fee came after he had become one of the greatest players of all time, won multiple Champions Leagues, won Ballon d’Ors, and had enormous commercial value. That wasn’t a “finished article” premium in the normal sense. It was an elite global asset changing hands.

In normal football markets, clubs often pay more for younger players because they are buying future upside. That’s why Lennon Miller’s fee makes sense. Udinese were not paying £4.5m because he was a better player than Just today. They were paying for an 18-year-old Scotland international with resale potential. If Miller develops properly, he could become a £15m–£25m player. That upside is priced into the fee.

With Just, it’s different. He’s 26. He’s much closer to the finished player. That makes him more reliable, but it also reduces the resale premium in my opinion.

His career history matters too. Before Motherwell, he had played in Denmark across the first and second tiers, then in the Austrian second tier. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a very good player, but it is part of the evidence a buying club will use. Clubs won’t ignore seven or eight years of career data because of one excellent season and a few World Cup games. That's just a fact.

I'm not saying that the World Cup doesn't raise his profile though, it absolutely does. Three goals at a World Cup is a brilliant achievement, especially for a Motherwell player. Nobody should dismiss that.

But context matters there as well. Two came against Iran. The other was a consolation in a 5–1 defeat to Belgium, and New Zealand still went out bottom of the group. That is still impressive, but it is not the same as dominating a knockout tie against France, Brazil or Argentina.

The Engels and Fernandez comparisons are also a bit of a stretch. Celtic and Rangers sell from a completely different position. They have bigger wages, European exposure, stronger bargaining power, longer control in many cases, and clubs in England are more willing to pay a premium for players coming out of them. Motherwell do not get Celtic or Rangers prices just because the player may be comparable on the pitch. I wish it wasn't the case, but it is.

I also agree that we should talk our players up. But talking them up doesn’t mean inventing a market that doesn’t exist. I'm trying to look at this from the position of a club who can afford someone like Just, and how they'll see it.

For me, £4m for Just would not be insulting. It would be a very strong fee for a 26 year old attacking player from a non-Old Firm Scottish club. If we could get £3.5-£4m with serious add-ons and a sell-on clause, that would be very good business.

Could a Celtic buy him for £4.5m and later sell him for more? Possibly. But that’s exactly the point. Celtic would be able to do that because they can offer Champions League exposure, a bigger platform and a stronger selling market. Motherwell selling directly from Fir Park are operating in a different market.

So I’m not saying Just isn’t a class act. He is.

I’m saying “class act” and “£10m player from Motherwell” are two very different things.

[Spit_It_Out]

The World Cup always has been a paying over  the odds for players that turn up at the event and Just turned up.

I would expect a fair few suitors tbh also we hold all the aces anything less than 5 million and its a theft!